NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 12, 7:00 PM AST371
WTNT42 KNHC 121449
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery
this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band
with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However,
given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the
center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots,
or at the lower end of the estimates.
The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.
While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 12, 7:00 PM AST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
