JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 2:18 PM EDT411
FXUS63 KJKL 111818
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
218 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A persistent tranquil weather pattern will continue under the
influence of high pressure through early Thursday.
- The next opportunity for rain is late Thursday onward, mainly
from Thursday night into the weekend. This is due to the
remnants of Hurricane Francis moving north and lingering over
the mid Mississippi River Valley.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 218 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
With the new aviation forecast, have updated sky grids based on
latest guidance. Otherwise, only blended obs into the existing
forecast, again without any substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 1058 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
Have blended late morning obs into the forecast, without
substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 738 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
Made slight adjustments to cloud cover across the far south where
cirrus has moved south and east of the area. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track with no changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
Upper ridging over the area today will slowly get shunted
northeastward from the area by Thursday as the outer periphery of
the circulation of Francine moves over eastern Kentucky.
High-level cirrus continues to fan out across the Southeastern U.S.
well downstream of the center of Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of
Mexico, with the northern edge spanning across the southern half of
the forecast area. This cloud cover will gradually thicken with time
and extend lower into the atmosphere as the eventual remnants of
Francine move to the Mid-South region late Thursday. While moisture
will be increasing from the upper levels downward, at the same time
the increasing southeasterly flow in the lower levels will promote
enhanced downslope compressional warming. Eventually, however, a
pseudo-warm front with an increasing surge of moisture appears
poised to increase precipitation chances from the southwest Thursday
afternoon.
Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid to
upper 80s as upper ridging remains overhead for one last day. As
ridging slowly starts to get shunted out of the area and high clouds
expand north across the area, the large ridge-valley temperature
differences we have been seeing over the previous several nights
will begin to decrease, with lows tonight on the ridgetops around 60
degrees while the coldest valley locations will likely see lows at
or just above 50 degrees. With thickening cloud cover Thursday and
increasing precipitation chances from the southwest, highs will
reach the upper 70s in the southwest to lower 80s in the northeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
The flow pattern to begin the extended continues to evolve, as the
models track the movements of Hurricane Francine. The remnants of
Francine are expected to move slowly north up the Mississippi
River Valley Thursday night, before essentially stalling over
portions of western Tennessee, Kentucky, and the Missouri boot
heal. Based on the latest model solutions, it appears that
Francine will set up a bit further west than previous model runs,
therefore also shifting the axis of heavier precipitation that
direction. With that in mind, we are also still expecting
persistent easterly to southeastern flow to set up and lead to
downslope warming off of our higher terrain along the Virginia and
West Virginia borders to end the week. With anticipated further
west trajectory of Francine, precipitation probabilities across
eastern Kentucky have been decreased quite a bit. This will mean
good chances of rain initially, as Francine moves our way Thursday
night into Friday. Rain chances across our area should begin to
wane Friday night, as the remnants of the tropical cyclone stall
to our west and begin to weaken. Rain chances should continue to
fall Saturday and Saturday night, as Francine becomes more
diffuse. Strengthening ridging aloft to our north and northeast,
ultimately will be what keeps Francine from move further east and
toward our forecast area.
As the ridge begins to break down on Sunday, a southern stream
system may be poised to move our way, thereby bringing another
bout of rain chances to eastern Kentucky heading into the new work
week. At this time, it appears that this system will be weak and
ill defined, and should only bring small chances of rain to the
area. By early Tuesday evening, any rain we see during the day on
Tuesday should have moved out of the area to our east.
Temperatures around eastern Kentucky be right around normal for
this time of year, perhaps being a degree or two cooler or warmer
than normal on average. Upper 70s to lower 80s look like a good
bet for now. Nightly lows should be in the upper 50s and lower
60s, again right around normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2024
VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts are forecast through the
period. Although, high ceilings will be developing from south to
north during the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 11, 2:18 PM EDT---------------
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