NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 12, 7:00 AM AST126
WTNT42 KNHC 120235
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024
Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the
tropical depression this evening. Earlier microwave imagery from
SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern
and western portion of the circulation. Subjective estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based
on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.
The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the
southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern
Atlantic. This motion should continue for the next day or so until
the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an
amplifying mid-level trough. By the end of the forecast period, the
system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge.
Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance
due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north. The
latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and
lies near the various consensus aids.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
strengthening for the next couple of days. Afterwards The
depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could
experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions. The
long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few
changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies
near HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 16.5N 31.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Sep 12, 7:00 AM AST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
