JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 1:17 AM EDT536
FXUS63 KJKL 100517
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
117 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more night of near-record low temperatures, then warmer
through mid-week.
- The next opportunity for rain is not until late Thursday through
next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2024
High pressure gradually shifting east will result in another cold
night, especially in the valleys. With the high working to the
east leading to light southerly flow on some of the coalfield
ridges, the magnitude of the ridge/valley temperature split should
be larger than the past couple of nights at 10 or more degrees.
Hourly temperatures and dewpoints were freshened up based on
recent observations and trends. Some valley locations have already
cooled off to the lower 50s per KY Mesonet station data.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 501 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2024
The latest upper level map features troughing over the East, with
broad ridging from central Canada through the middle Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Ohio
Valley, with a weak inverted surface trough nosed in from the
lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Clear skies, light
winds, and moderating high temperatures (although still below
normals for this time of the year), have been on tap for eastern
Kentucky today.
The models are in very good agreement through the short term, with
broad ridging working east and flattening. Meanwhile, Tropical
Storm Francine will strengthen to Hurricane status and arc along
the western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will
also shift east, aligning more along the Appalachians by the end
of the period. This all results in continued tranquil conditions
across eastern Kentucky, with moderating temperatures.
Tonight will feature another cold night, with temperatures dipping
into the lower 40s in the sheltered valleys, while ridges stay up
above 50 degrees. A few spots may even touch the upper 30s once
again, given the drier low level air mass in place. As 500 mb
heights continue to increase into Tuesday, and the surface high
eases off to our east, temperatures will rebound into the lower to
middle 80s under sunny skies. Readings fall off into the 40s and
50s once again Tuesday night, but given the warmer start, and
perhaps just a bit of cirrus associated with Francine after
midnight, lows should be several degrees warmer compared to
tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 512 PM EDT MON SEP 9 2024
Forecast challenge for the extended package centers on Francine,
or the remnants of Francine and its movement after lifting
northward into the Mississippi Valley, or from Friday going
forward. With respect to synoptic scale features, operational and
ensemble solutions are quite similar. Weak ridging aloft will
strengthen and become centered over the Great Lakes as Francine
tracks out of the Gulf and up the Mississippi river valley,
reaching the Mid-South area by Friday morning. Ensembles and
respective parent solutions diverge from that point going forward
but not quite as much as previous runs. At present, a key detail
in solutions is that Francine appears to wind up over western
Tennessee and Kentucky before the overall circulation broadens and
the system stalls out. This would not bode well for the potential
of substantial rainfall across far eastern Kentucky. Tropical
storms need to be further east in order to avoid the southeast
downslope conditions that cut into overall rainfall totals.
Moisture and cloud cover will increase from the southwest during
the day Thursday and continue through into Friday and the
weekend. But there is considerable uncertainty in how much of that
moisture actually manages to get converted into useful rainfall.
The ensemble probability of a total QPF GTE to 0.5 inches across
our area from Friday through Monday is generally 60-80%, and only
35-65% for an inch or more. So while portions of the area could
see some much needed rain, those locations are more likely to be
across our northern and southwestern zones. Unless something
changes it will be more likely that our far east and southeast
will fair less fortunate. PoPs continue to max out in the range of
50-70%, with our far east and southeastern zones possibly seeing
a low QPF event overall. Let's hope trends are more favorable with
future cycles.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2024
High pressure continues to produce clear skies, light winds, and
mostly VFR conditions throughout the entire period. The only
exception will be a period through around ~14z, when MVFR to IFR
or locally lower reductions in fog are prevalent within the
deeper river valleys and along some of the larger creeks and area
lakes. However, this fog is not expected to affect the TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 1:17 AM EDT---------------
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