PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 4:20 PM EDT820
FXUS61 KPBZ 082020
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
420 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An extended dry period is expected for the upcoming week. Above
average temperatures are anticipated after Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and seasonably cool today; breezy conditions north of
Pittsburgh.
- Frost Advisory in effect for eastern Tucker county early
Monday morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Gradual height rises aloft within NW flow and surface high
pressure centered over Illinois will promote seasonably cool and
dry weather through Monday morning. Afternoon wind gusts between
15-25kts will subside as peak heating wanes and surface
inversions develop.
Clear sky and calm wind with continued influence of the cold air
mass will lead to temperature around 10 degrees below average.
Probabilities are high enough for greater cooling (due to
lighter overnight wind) for eastern Tucker County to require a
Frost Advisory with low temperature falling below 40 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clear and dry weather is expected through Tuesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A ridge axis over the Midwest is expected to shift east into
the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday, allowing temperatures to
moderate.
Probability of temperatures >=80F is 80% to 95% over eastern
Ohio and portions of West Virginia/Pennsylvania. Temperatures
could exceed into the upper-80s over eastern Ohio if strong
subsidence develops during peak heating (dew points drop into
the mid-40s/30s). With the noted dew points being comfortably
low, the chances of the heat index exceeding 90F will be low as
well.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather and above average temperatures through
next weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a ridge will persist across much of the
eastern CONUS through at least Saturday. Operational and model
ensemble members diverge later Saturday and Sunday in handling
of a low drifting north from the Gulf of Mexico.
GFS ensemble members keep this low further west than ECMWF
members. The NAEFS and NBM blend these two scenarios, which
results in a mainly dry forecast for the Upper Ohio Valley
region. Stayed close to this blended scenario in the long term
period, with only slight chance pops late Saturday and Sunday to
account for uncertainty. Temperatures are expected to average
above seasonable levels through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day under high
pressure and northwest flow. Probability of wind gusts 15kts to
20kts this afternoon, with a noted gradient wind, is considered
high (>70%) between 18Z to 22Z for FKL and DUJ.
Impacts of river valley fog may develop between 09Z to 12Z near
FKL Monday. However, confidence is low.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions will persist through much of the next week under
the influence of high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Frazier
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 4:20 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
