Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #983 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE409
AWUS01 KWNH 070058
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ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070600-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0983
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2024
Areas affected...central Gulf Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 070055Z - 070600Z
Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of the central Gulf Coast, and more specifically, over
southeastern LA in the vicinity of Lake Pontchartrain over the
next 3-5 hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be
possible from slow moving cores of heavy rain..
Discussion...Radar trends over the past 1-2 hours showed a
west-east axis of heavier rain over the I-10 corridor
transitioning into a mesolow with nearly stationary movement of
heavy rain centered over Lake Pontchartrain. The mesolow appears
to be located along a quasi-stationary front within a very moist
environment containing 2.5 inches of precipitable water, a warm
cloud layer depth of 15.7 kft and LFC-EL mean wind of only 3 kt
(via 00Z LIX sounding). Despite weak MLCAPE of <500 J/kg on the
LIX sounding, sufficient lift within the moist environment has
been enough to support MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
in/hr through 0030Z.
The environment across the central Gulf Coast will remain
favorable for the development of slow moving cores of heavy rain
as southerly low level flow continues to pump in some of the
highest area precipitable water values across the Gulf of Mexico
(2.5+ inches) located just south of the central Gulf Coast to a
surface low in the western Gulf. The front or elevated frontal
boundary could allow for the formation of additional mesolows
capable of localized very high rainfall rates. While recent hires
guidance does not have a handle on this feature, it seems
plausible that a threat area from south-central LA to about Mobile
Bay will have the greatest chances of high rainfall rates and
localized flash flooding over the next few hours. While any flash
flooding is expected to be localized, high rainfall totals may
still result with short-term rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 30848888 30848831 30728792 30458781 30068789
29988858 29838892 29748926 29658971 29619005
29599049 29619091 29609134 29989201 30459178
30609065 30678988
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #983 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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