JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 8:25 PM EDT877
FXUS63 KJKL 070025 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After another warm day today, a cold front passing tonight will
bring a noticeable cool-down for the weekend. This is followed
by a gradual warm-up next week.
- Showers or thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into
this evening in association with the passing cold front.
Otherwise, there's no rain in the forecast for the next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2024
Instability should continue to wane over the next hour as
convection continues to become more outflow dominant and not
surface based. Some gusty winds are possible until then, with the
outflow in the northwest counties and other convection with the
potential for gusty winds may near the Lake Cumberland/Pulaski
County to Rockcastle County areas if it holds together. Some
adjustments were made to hourly pops based on recent radar trends
and mesoanalysis as well as recent observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 448 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2024
A cold front is entering KY from the northwest late this
afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the front has been limited,
with dew points generally running in the lower to mid 60s.
Although, there have been some readings near 70 very close to the
front. Never the less, this has been enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop from western KY northeast into OH.
Latest guidance suggests this activity will shift into the JKL
forecasts area this evening and progress southeast during the
night, with the best coverage near/north of the Cumberland
Pkwy/Hal Rogers Pkwy/Highway 80 corridor. Have expanded a likely
POP to cover most of that area. Although shear is unimpressive,
dry air aloft and fairly high condensation levels suggest a
possibility of some gusty winds through early evening, and the far
northern part of the forecast area remains in a marginal svr wx
outlook from SPC.
The front will exit to the southeast overnight and a much cooler
air mass will begin to arrive. Enough low level moisture may
linger behind the front for a few showers to linger early Saturday
near the VA border. Otherwise, skies will clear out as surface high
pressure builds in from the northwest and brings an mass with an
early taste of autumn.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 448 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2024
A period of quiet weather on tap in the extended, as a large ridge
of high pressure is expected to settle over the region, and remain
in place through the end of the new work week. This scenario is
backed up by multiple forecast models including the GFS, ECMWF, WPC
guidance, and GFS Ensembles. A southern stream system may get close
enough next Friday to allow a few showers to cross the Tennessee
border into our area, but this is low confidence at this time.
Temperatures will be quite pleasant through out the extended, with
highs generally in the low to mid 80s with low humidity most days.
The period starts off quite cool, as Canadian high pressure becomes
entrenched overhead. Sundays highs are still forecast max out in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Monday will see the beginning of a steady
warming trend that will last the whole week, with highs on that day
making it into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The rest of the week
will likely see max daytime values in the low to mid 80s, but with
continued low humidity.
With high pressure expected to be overhead the entire week, we will
see light winds, ample sunshine, and dry air in place. These
conditions will favor ridge valley temperature splits, especially
Sunday night, when the coolest air will be in place. Sunday night
lows could range from the lower 40s in our coolest, most sheltered
valleys, to the upper 40s on the surrounding ridges. These values
will creep up the rest of the week, as the days become warmer.
Patchy valley fog will also be favored each night and early morning,
and could be dense at times near bodies of water.
As mentioned earlier, the first chance for rain in the extended
should hold off until Friday, and should be only routine rain
showers due to lack of a good trigger and instability. Therefore, no
weather hazards are expected at this time in the extended period of
the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2024
Convection in the vicinity of a cold front was working across
northwest portions of the CWA at issuance time and was also
nearing the southwest quadrant of the area. The leading edge of
the convection should progress east and southeast through most of
the eastern KY during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period. Sub-
VFR conditions are expected at least at times within the stronger
showers and any thunderstorms. Gusty winds up to 30KT or so could
occur from KSYM to KLOZ and points to the west as an outflow
boundary progresses east and southeast over the first hour or two
of the period. Light winds will shift to the north behind the
front from the northwest corner of the area to the southeasternmost
portions of east KY through about 06Z. A period of mainly MVFR
ceilings and some scattered IFR in spots is forecast for a time
behind the front in the 02Z to 12Z timeframe. With the low
ceilings likely to linger the longest in the southeast. VFR
conditions should return to all areas by the 12Z to 18Z period.
Winds on Saturday should average form the north at 5 to 10KT with
gusts into the 15 to 20KT range at times.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 8:25 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
