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577 FXUS64 KMOB 040950AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL450 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024A wet pattern sets up today through the end of the work week as southerly flow around a weak area of low pressure in the northwestGulf brings deep layer moisture into the area. Precipitable watervalues in the 2-2.5 inch range will move into the area this afternoon and continue through Friday. This increased moisture combined with a developing trough over the eastern states on Friday will lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The highest rain chances will be acrossthe southern third of the area with lower POPs to the north. Severe storms are not expected due to the saturated profile aloft along with weak shear. However, depending on where the heavier rain sets up, localized flooding issues cannot be ruled out. The good news is that high temps will be 10-15 degrees below normal due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall. /13&&.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024Friday night into the weekend, a mean upper level trough moves over the Southeast, with a strong embedded shortwave trough moving off. A surface boundary that has organized over the north-central Gulf coast moves south over the Gulf before stalling, to varying extents. Dry, somewhat cooler, northerly air moves south over the forecast area in the wake of the front. By Sunday, moisture levels vary significantly in the deterministic guidance, depending on where the front stalls. From around 0.5" well inland to 1" along the coast to 0.5" well inland to around 1.5" south of I-10. The ensembles and about half of the deterministic guidance leans towards the latter, so have left PoPs in south of I-65 through the weekend into the coming week. With the drier air pushing further south west of the Mobile River, have left the higher PoPs further inland east of the Bay. Temperatures rebound from the Near Term well below seasonal to closer to seasonal norms in the Near Term to closer to, but still a bit below seasonal norms in the coming week due to the northerly flow. High temperatures ranging from around 80 to mid 80s Saturday to mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. The drier air will help low temperatures to drop to well below seasonal norms this weekend. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 to the upper 50s well north of Highway 84 to upper 60s along the coast Saturday and Sunday nights. Low temperatures slowly rebound in the coming week, to the low 60s well north of Highway 84 to low 70s near the coast Tuesday night.Taking a look in the tropics, guidance continues to advertise a tropical wave passing south of Cuba this weekend, with some organizing the system into a tropical system. Guidance is consistent in moving the system towards the Yucatan peninsula, then the southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche./16 &&.MARINE...Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024A moderate to occasionally strong flow continues into early Thursday. The easterly flow diminishes during the day on Thursday then become more northerly over the weekend. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the period. /13&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 86 73 81 70 78 67 83 64 / 70 70 80 70 80 50 30 10 Pensacola 86 75 82 73 80 71 82 69 / 70 70 80 80 80 70 40 20 Destin 89 75 85 74 83 72 85 71 / 60 60 80 80 80 70 50 20 Evergreen 89 70 82 67 79 65 85 61 / 20 40 60 60 70 50 20 10 Waynesboro 88 70 77 67 75 65 82 58 / 30 40 70 50 60 30 10 0 Camden 87 68 78 66 75 64 82 59 / 10 40 60 50 60 30 10 0 Crestview 89 72 84 69 81 67 85 65 / 50 50 70 70 80 60 40 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ650-655- 670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
