IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDT288
FXUS63 KIND 052245
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
645 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm today
- Frontal passage very late tonight into Friday will bring chances
for showers and non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 25 mph
- Potential for sub-40 degree temperatures in rural areas Saturday
night
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 448 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Strong low level lapse rates of 8-8.5 degrees C/km combined with
moderate CAPE to 1500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis page and LAPS data
along with radar indicating a moderate shower over Parke and
Fountain counties supports adding isolated convection through
sunset. Synoptic support was still further upstream ahead of an
upper Midwest trough, so shied away from higher PoPs.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Hot today with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 as surface flow
from the SW is advecting in warmer air. Satellite is showing
scattered afternoon Cu across the region and a few showers have
actually formed over northern Indiana. A cold front will move
through the area tomorrow bringing with it rain chances, cooler
temperatures, and wind gusts of around 25 mph. Rain is expected to
move into central Indiana from the NW around or prior to daybreak
tomorrow and track southeastward. A few rumbles of thunder will
be possible with the rain, but best chances look to be during the
afternoon hours. Soundings do show a shallow inverted V so can't
rule out some cells producing a quick downburst of gusty winds,
especially across the east, but confidence is low as there lacks
moisture loading aloft. Rain should come to an end by tomorrow
evening and less than a quarter inch of precip is expected. There
will also be cooler temperatures tomorrow as that front moves
through so highs in the NW will be in the mid 70s while in the SE
will be closer to the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
The long term features a temperature rollercoaster ride as a front
brings a drastically cooler airmass into the region for the weekend.
The Autumn weather won't last long as next week features a warming
trend back into the 80s.
This Weekend...
Main story for the weekend is the considerably cooler weather across
the region with highs struggling to reach the 70 degree mark on
Saturday. Breezy northerly winds Saturday and cold air advection
will make it feel even cooler outside despite clearing skies and
abundant sunshine.
High pressure becomes centered over Illinois by Saturday night,
allowing the pressure gradient to subside with optimal conditions
for radiational cooling developing. Some of the coolest temperatures
of the season so far are expected by Sunday morning with widespread
lows dropping into the 40s. Confidence is increasing in temperatures
dropping into the upper 30s for rural, low lying areas. While no
frost is expected, more sensitive plants may be impacted.
With high pressure directly overhead, expect another dry, cool day
ahead with less windy conditions than Saturday. As ridging begins to
build in overhead from the west, highs will becoming progressively
warmer and warmer each day back to summer-time levels. While highs
struggle to get out of the 60s Saturday, expect temperatures to
reach the lower 70s by Sunday afternoon.
Next Week...
Ridging quickly builds back into the region Monday resulting in a
warming trend back to the 80s. Mainly dry conditions expected for
much of next week with no major storm systems on the horizon. With
such dry conditions expected and nights getting longer, diurnal
temperature ranges will likely be quite large. While highs will
reach the mid to upper 80s by mid to late next week, lows still may
be dropping into the 50s for many areas.
Despite this being a drier time of year for Central Indiana,
extended periods of warm, dry weather with little rain will likely
lead to rapid onset drought conditions across the state. Longer
range guidance indicates this drier than normal pattern persisting
into the Fall for much of Indiana.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024
Impacts:
- An isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out mainly at KLAF
through 01z Friday
- MVFR ceilings possible in showers or possibly a thunderstorm
12z-18z Friday
- Light southwest winds tonight will shift to 310-340 degrees
and gust to 20 knots or more in the wake of a cold front, Friday
afternoon
Discussion:
A cold front will move southeast across the terminals on Friday.
The front will interact with an unstable and sufficiently moist
atmosphere to trigger scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Chances are too low for anything other than VCSH in the TAFs for
now. Winds will also turn to the northwest and become gusty behind
the front, Friday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDT---------------
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