IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 4:06 AM EDT423
FXUS63 KIWX 030806
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
406 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with a warming trend into Thursday. Lows near 50
tonight rising all of the way into the mid to upper 80s Thursday.
- Scattered to numerous showers Friday into Saturday.
- Turning much cooler with highs in the 60s this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
The center of the surface high pressure was near Detroit and
was drifting east. The atmosphere over the forecast area was
anomalously very dry with precipitable water values near or
below 0.40". Clear to mostly clear skies will prevail through
Wednesday with this environment. Very large diurnal temperatures
swings from 25 to 35 degrees can be expected today and
Wednesday as the shallow cold air mixes out. As drought
conditions intensify, some feedback should allow afternoon highs
soar well into the 80s Thursday. Deeper moisture return is
greatly lagging and should prevent heat indices from reaching
the 90s Thursday.
A large upper low will amplify into the upper Great Lakes region
late this week and usher in scattered to numerous showers Friday
followed by much cooler air Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF have come
into reasonable agreement with mass fields several runs ago.
850 mb temperatures should settle near +1C to +2C rendering
delta T values in excess of 20C given very warm Lake Michigan
water temperatures. Have increased shower chances downstream of
Lake Michigan Friday night into Saturday night given the low
level GFS fetch, delta T values (near 22C) and massive moisture
flux out of a lake with water temperatures >= 24C per 03/00Z
GLERL. Lake Index CAPEs will become extremely unstable @ 2000
J/Kg per GFS BUFKIT. ELs will be close to 28,000 feet so have
added thunder near the lake. Much warmer and drier air will
rapidly return lake Saturday night into Sunday ending all
remaining precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
Weak upper level short waves progressing through upstream
ridging will produce nothing more than some patchy cirrus this
morning. Very dry column and large scale subsidence will support
mainly clear skies through the period. Easterly low level low
on southwest periphery of Great Lakes anticyclone should keep
lake breeze formation confined northwest of KSBN. East-southeast
winds of 10 knots or less can be expected through the day
today.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 4:06 AM EDT---------------
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