BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 3:01 PM EDT740
FXUS61 KBOX 011901
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
301 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region overnight followed by sunny and
seasonably warm conditions on Labor Day with comfortable humidity.
Large high pressure will dominate the region through the end of the
week with dry weather with seasonably warm days and cool nights.
Approaching low pressure will bring increasing risk of rain next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers continue to develop and move across CT/RI and SE
MA. MLCAPES up to 1000 J/kg so can't rule out a t-storm or 2
developing through the afternoon. Focus for convection will continue
to be south of the Pike where moisture is greatest.
Upper trough moves eastward from Gt Lakes tonight with attendant
cold front sweeping across SNE overnight. Ahead of the front, the
risk for a few showers will continue this evening, mainly over the
Cape/Islands within the moisture axis. Otherwise, expect clearing
skies developing tonight, especially interior, with clouds lingering
near the south coast along with areas of fog developing. Any fog
will lift late tonight behind the cold front. Lows will range from
the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Labor Day...
Large high pres will build across the Gt Lakes with post-frontal
northerly flow and drying airmass. Some clouds will linger near the
south coast in the morning, otherwise mostly sunny skies expected
with low humidity as dewpoints drop through the 50s and into the
40s. Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.
Monday night...
Large high pres builds in from the west leading to diminishing wind
with clear skies. Good radiational cooling will allow low temps to
drop into the 40s, but low-mid 50s near the coast where a steady
north wind is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key points...
* Dry and cooler conditions set in all of next week with especially
cool mornings during the first half of the week.
* Next chance of unsettled weather comes next weekend.
Details...
Surface high pressure in control throughout next week will keep a
lid on any rain chances while southern New England enjoys plenty of
sun. Humidity levels are comfortable as well as dry NW flow brings
dewpoints in the 40s and low 50s each day, into the low 60s by
Friday. The next window for rain chances arrives by next weekend as
a mid level trough looks to dig into the Great Lakes and then cross
New England around late Sunday/Monday. Confidence in specifics for
next weekend is low at this time.
Temperatures will start out very comfortably, cooler than average
for early September in fact. This is thanks to a lingering upper
trough/cold pool overhead that doesn't fully pull away until late
Wednesday into Thursday. Thus, Tuesday will be the coolest day of
the stretch with highs in the low to mid 70s before upper 70s return
for the rest of the week. Mornings will be quite cool for the first
few days owing to the high overhead and radiational cooling; expect
lows in the 40s away from the coasts on Tuesday, increasing a few
degrees each day thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Through 00z...
Improving to VFR north of the MA Pike with MVFR cigs to the
south. IFR-LIFR stratus and fog developing along the immediate
south coast and Cape/Islands 21-00z. Scattered showers and
possibly an isolated t-storm south of the MA Pike.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR-LIFR stratus and fog immediate south coast and Cape/Islands
should improve to VFR 06-12z. Mainly VFR elsewhere, but MVFR
cigs may linger at PVD this evening. Also, patchy late night fog
developing in the CT valley. SW winds shifting to NW overnight
behind the cold frontal passage overnight.
Monday and Monday night...High Confidence.
VFR. N winds 10-20 kt Mon diminishing Mon night.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Monday night...High Confidence.
Winds and seas below SCA thresholds. SW winds shifting to NW after
midnight then N winds 10-20 Mon into Mon night. Areas of fog this
evening with improving vsbys late tonight.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BW
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...KJC/BW
MARINE...KJC/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 3:01 PM EDT----------------
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