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022 FXUS64 KMOB 010943AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL443 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024The mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will dig southward through tonight and then lift northeastward and weaken on Monday along the Eastern Seaboard from New England to the Mid-Atlantic States. In the wake of the departing mid/upper trough, a large mid/upper ridge between the Rocky Mountains and Mississippi River will build into the Southeast States from the west. At the surface, a large high pressure area across the Northern Great Plains will shift eastward across the Great Lakes region while a weak easterly wave moves across the Gulf and Deep South.Surface heating today and Monday will result in weak instability across the area, allowing isolated showers and storms to develop this afternoon, and isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms to develop Monday afternoon. A few showers and storms should linger through mid-evening across the inland areas, with dry conditions occurring area-wide overnight through the morning hours. Highs today and Monday will reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices as high as 103 degrees for some locations. Lows tonight and Monday night should range from 69 to 74 degrees inland, and from 75 to 79 degrees closer to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today should settle to Low tonight through Monday night. /22&&.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...(Tuesday through Saturday)Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024An upper level ridge over the Southeast shifts east through mid week as an upper trough moves over the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Thursday. This trough passes over the Southeast Friday through Saturday. Surface high pressure over the East Coast combines with low pressure over the Bay of Campeche to create a moderate southeasterly flow over the northeastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, keeping moisture levels high. Moisture levels have risen to around 2", plus or minus, with the organized southeasterly flow by Tuesday morning and remain so into the weekend. Rain chances increase though mid week in response. As the axis of the mean upper trough passes, a trailing cold front moves over the Southeast late Friday into the weekend, bring a drier airmass to the forecast area, and a drop in rain chances through the coming weekend. A small possibility exists of water issues over our southern-most counties late Wednesday into Friday, with the possiblity of training thunderstorms combined with a moist airmass bringing efficient rainers to the area. Will continue to monitor.The increase in rain coverage through the week will bring a drop in temperatures, from a bit above seasonal norms on Tuesday (around 90 to low 90s) to mid to upper 80s on Wednesday before bottoming out in the low to mid 80s Thursday and Friday. Daytime heat indices in the 100-105 degree range Tuesday drop to below 100 area-wide by Wednesday. Low temperatures see a slow drop through the week into the weekend. Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to range from around 70 over along and north of Highway 84 to low to mid 70s south and upper 70s along the coast. By Saturday night, temperatures bottom out in the low 60s well north of Highway 84 to low 70s south of I-10.The more organized southeasterly flow with this packages is bringing an uptick in swell to area beaches through the week. A decrease in the tidal cycle will help to moderate the chance of rip currents, with a moderate to a times high risk on area beaches.Taking a look beyond the current package, guidance continues to advertise a tropical wave passing south of Cuba next weekend, organizing into a tropical system as it heads towards the southern Gulf. Guidance has been generally consistent in taking this system towards the Yucatan Peninsula. /16 &&.MARINE...Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024Small craft operating on the Gulf may need to exercise caution Tuesday night and Wednesday, otherwise no significant marine impacts are expected throughout the week as a light to moderate east to southeast flow prevails. /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 92 73 95 74 92 73 86 73 / 20 10 20 20 70 70 80 70 Pensacola 91 77 93 77 90 76 86 77 / 20 10 30 30 90 80 80 70 Destin 92 78 93 78 91 77 88 77 / 10 10 20 30 90 80 80 80 Evergreen 95 70 97 71 93 71 86 70 / 20 10 20 10 60 60 70 60 Waynesboro 92 70 94 71 92 71 83 70 / 20 20 20 10 60 60 70 60 Camden 93 70 93 71 89 70 82 69 / 20 20 20 10 60 50 60 60 Crestview 95 72 97 73 93 72 87 73 / 20 10 30 30 70 70 70 60 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
