CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 3:28 AM EDT080
FXUS61 KCLE 030728
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually exit
east toward the Northeast through Thursday. Low pressure and
trailing cold front will swing across the region Friday into
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will provide tranquil
and fall-like weather today. Cool 850mb temperatures between
8-10C will keep high temperatures today between the low 70s in
Northwest PA to the mid to upper 70s along the I-75 corridor,
roughly 5 degrees below normal areawide. Clear skies and calm
winds Tuesday night leads to another chilly night with lows
between the mid 40s to to low 50s. High pressure builds east
toward the Northeast by Wednesday as 850mb temperatures
increase to 12-14C. High temperatures Wednesday return near
normal in the upper 70s across eastern zones and low 80s out
west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure on the exit off the east coast while the longwave
upper level pattern begins to get more amplified. Open wave aloft
over the southern Canadian Prairies will deepen in the short term
forecast period and become closed over northwest Ontario, dropping
southeastward. Surface mid latitude wave cyclone strengthens in
response, and this cold front will accelerate towards the CWA. As it
does so, the return flow from the aforementioned high pressure off
the coast will bring temperatures back up above normal again for the
I-77 corridor and west. East of I-77 will be closer to normal. This
portion of the forecast is dry ahead of the frontal system with
mainly clear skies Thursday, and gradually clouding up Thursday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front comes through Friday into Friday night with
showers/storms in what will be the next chance for rain for the
entire forecast area. Cold front could get held up as a new wave
of low pressure develops in southern Ontario along it, but
overall, the low pressure system will be rapidly occluding. No
real strong signals for severe weather just yet, although the
low level flows will be modest without a discernible jet for
this CWA. Another significant cool down expected in the wake of
the cold front with 850mb temperatures plummeting into the lower
single digits. This will translate to surface temperatures
likely not getting out of the 60s for Saturday and Sunday in
some of the coolest air since summer began. Will need to watch
the wind directions for lake effect showers, but may have too
much of a southwesterly component. Details such as this will
become clearer in future forecasts, as will any severe potential
as the front pushes through. Forecast dries out early next
week, and temperatures moderate back into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions across terminals through the period as high
pressure remains over the region. Calm and cool overnight may
give way to patchy valley fog, but not anticipating any impact
to TAF sites. Generally east winds less than 5 knots early this
morning will increase to 5-8 by daybreak. Weak pressure
gradient under high pressure will allow for a lake breeze to
develop at KCLE and KERI Tuesday afternoon.
Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday. Non-VFR will be
possible in showers Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak trough of low pressure sitting over Lake Erie will create
light and variable winds, but for the most part, wave heights in the
nearshore areas will be less than 2 feet through Wednesday night.
Winds become southerly 10-15kts Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a
cold front that will be moving towards the region for Friday. The
cold front moves across the lake west to east Friday into Friday
night with winds becoming northwest Friday into Saturday 15-20kts
behind the front. Still a ways out, but a Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for the first part of the weekend if the forecast
for this vigorous cold front passage holds.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 3:28 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
