LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 12:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...882
FXUS64 KLIX 311748
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1248 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
If you're getting deja vu, it's not just you. Another round of
diurnally driven convection fueled by ample instability and favorable
diffluent flow aloft has fired up across the coastal waters and
is gradually drifting inland. Expect showers and storms to spread
across coastal areas including the New Orleans metro through the
morning hours. We might be slightly ahead of schedule compared to
yesterday with these showers spreading inland based on latest KHDC
imagery. PWAT values of 2.3" (near daily maximum) remain overhead
which will make rainfall highly efficient. Rainfall rates in
excess of 2-4" will be possible which increases the likelihood of
flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.
By late morning into mid-afternoon tropical bands of showers and
storms will continue northward spreading into the Florida Parishes
and southwest MS before gradually waning near sunset. Expect much
of the exact same again on Sunday with storms starting off over
the coastal waters before pushing inland during the daylight
hours. There is some indication in ensemble CAM guidance that we
could see convection shut off slightly earlier on Sunday afternoon
as the environment gets worked over and updrafts struggle with
weaker lapse rates.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Daytime PoPs will be notably lower on Monday as rising mid-level
heights build in suppressing updraft development and the weak
surface trough scoots southwestward away from our area. This will
allow temps to rebound closer to near average with highs in the low
to mid 90s. Unfortunately, the tropical air mass will not
necessarily be departing with the rain chances so heat indices will
soar back into the 100-108F range.
Rising heights from the nosing mid-level ridge to the east will
continue to build into Tuesday potentially keeping the higher heat
indices and sunnier conditions in place at least into midday. We'll
then be watching yet another weak inverted surface trough move in
from the eastern Gulf which will locally enhance surface lift and
coupled with daytime instability probably spark off at least
scattered showers and storms into the afternoon hours on Tuesday.
The surface troughiness does not abate through midweek which will
send us back to a similar regime to what we have seen the last few
days where locally heavy rainfall could be possible as we see more
diurnally driven convection fire off the weak disturbance each
morning and move inland. This will fortunately mean temperatures dip
back below average if we do see sufficient coverage of showers and
storms into the latter part of the week.
By the end of the period, the long term guidance points to the weak
mid-level ridging overhead eroding as a more amplified longwave
trough pattern takes shape over the eastern CONUS. This could signal
the arrival of a week frontal boundary to the area, but it is way
too soon to be getting your hopes up.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected
across southeast LA and southern MS through the period, with a
general lull from the late afternoon/evening through most of the
overnight hours. With deep tropical moisture in place,
thunderstorms have been few and far between, and see no reason why
that will change tomorrow. Thus have not mentioned thunder at any
of the TAF sites as probability is too low. While temporary
restrictions due to heavier precip will likely occur at times,
confidence in specific timing and location of the heavier showers
and storms is too low to include at this time and will need to be
handled with future updates or amendments.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
East to southeast surface winds remain steady at around 10-15
knots through much of the forecast period. The presence of a weak
surface trough will continue to produce tropical showers and
storms capable of locally higher winds and waves as well as
waterspouts primarily during the late overnight and morning hours.
Some slightly higher winds closer to 15-20 knots could accompany a
secondary surface trough that enters the area by Wednesday, but
exact timing and details are pretty nuanced at this range.
Generally, winds and waves remain below cautionary headlines
through the period, but could be raised in brief periods as
warranted.
With persistent southeasterly winds, tides may be a little above
normal, but latest tidal guidance does not suggest any impactful
anomalies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 84 71 88 70 / 70 30 40 10
BTR 84 74 90 74 / 60 40 70 20
ASD 83 73 89 73 / 80 50 40 20
MSY 84 75 87 76 / 80 50 60 20
GPT 83 74 88 74 / 90 40 40 30
PQL 84 74 93 74 / 80 30 30 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ046>048-056>060-
064>070-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...TJS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 12:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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