ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 2:01 PM EDT513
FXUS61 KILN 011801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions will filter into the area today, although a
stray shower cannot be ruled out late in the day in central OH.
Cooler air will also settle into the region and will stick
around through midweek. Abundant sunshine and seasonably mild
temperatures will prevail through the first half of the workweek
before rain chances return by Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level flow to amplify with mean trof over SE Canada
settling into Great Lakes/Ohio today. Marginal instability
continues in the far southeast where a few lingering
showers/thunderstorms will continue to be possible.
Low level humidity currently in place will be shunted south of
the area through the morning hours, replaced by much drier air
by early afternoon.
Focus shifts to secondary cold front that advances south into
ILN/s northern counties later this afternoon. Low level moisture
pools along this front offering some clouds, and perhaps a few
sprinkles, or light rain showers late in the day into this
evening.
Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s across
most locations, sans the far northwest where lower 80s will be
common.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tranquil conditions are expected through the short term period
as drier air filters in and settles into the OH Vly tonight
through Monday. Temps tonight will range from the lower 50s in
EC IN and WC OH to around 60 in NE KY and the lower Scioto
Valley before rebounding to the mid to upper 70s area-wide
Monday afternoon. A FEW/SCT diurnally-driven Cu are expected on
Monday amidst otherwise mostly sunny skies.
Northerly sfc flow during the day will help usher in PWATs <50%
of seasonal norms, which will stick around through at least
Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Very dry air mass in place at the beginning of the week, with PWATs
near 0.5" if not lower. This is in response to a northwesterly flow
regime, ushering in relatively cooler/drier air. Temperatures will
trend a couple degrees below seasonal normals on Tuesday in the
middle 70s to lower 80s.
Subtle H5 ridging builds in on Wednesday, allowing for a warmup in
temperatures just above seasonal normals. Precip chances will return
as early as Thursday, but PoPs remain low given the weak forcing.
Better chances for precip may arrive at some point between Friday
and Saturday as an H5 trough and associated surface cold front swing
through the Ohio Valley. This troughing signal is pretty robust now
amongst global models. However, we don't see a very impressive QPF
footprint with this, which may lead to worsening drought
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Westerly mid level flow becoming northwest as shortwave and
secondary surface front drops south thru the TAF sites late in
the day into early evening.
Scattered to broken VFR cumulus clouds to develop with the best
coverage of clouds in a narrow axis associated with the secondary
cold front. A few spotty rain showers will be possible,
particularly at KCMH/KLCK early this evening. Skies will clear
out again overnight with the loss of heating and as this axis
continues to shift south.
Additional few to scattered diurnally driven VFR cumulus clouds
are expected Monday afternoon.
West-northwest winds around 10 kts become more northwest at
10-15 kts this afternoon and then more out of the north this
evening behind the front. Some brief wind gusts up to 20 kts
will be possible behind the front this evening. Eventually winds
will subside to less than 10kts late tonight becoming north-
northeast. North-northeast winds expected at 10-12 kts with
gusts up to 18 kts Monday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 2:01 PM EDT---------------
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