MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 10:40 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...252
FXUS64 KMOB 310340
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period, with perhaps some temporary MVFR ceilings and/or
visibility by mid to late morning and afternoon hours Saturday as
shower and thunderstorms once again develop. Winds will remain out
of the east to east- southeast around 5 knots overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning before turning more southeasterly around 10
knots by late morning into the afternoon hours Saturday. MM/25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
VFR conditions prevail with only isolated showers and storms
lingering this evening over interior portions of the forecast
area. Expect VFR conditions to remain prevalent through the
forecast period, with perhaps some temporary MVFR ceilings and/or
visibility by mid to late morning and afternoon hours Saturday as
shower and thunderstorms once again develop. Winds will remain out
of the east to east-southeast around 5 knots overnight tonight
into tomorrow morning before turning more southeasterly around 10
knots by late morning into the afternoon hours Saturday. MM/25
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
The pattern we have seen over the past couple of days continues
through Saturday as our local area lies in between low pressure
near Texas/Louisiana and ridging to our northeast. A conveyor belt
of deep moisture and strong cyclonic vorticity will continue to
advect into Louisiana and Mississippi. Meanwhile, subsidence from
the nearby ridge will be in place across our northeastern zones.
With these features in place, increased moisture and lift will
allow for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms to
continue developing over our southwestern zones (PoPs generally
around 50-60%) through the remainder of the afternoon. On the
other hand, subsidence should keep rain chances lower over our
northeastern zones (PoPs around 20-40%). Rain chances areawide
will drop during the evening and overnight hours due to the loss
of daytime heating. PoPs tomorrow will be almost identical to
today, with the best chances expected over our southwestern zones
during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Lows tonight will be in the 70s across the region. Tomorrow's highs
will range from the mid to upper 80s over our southwestern zones
(due to increased cloud cover/rain coverage) to the mid 90s for our
northeastern zones (due to increased subsidence). A moderate risk of
rip currents continues through the period. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
An upper level trough will dig across the eastern states Sunday
into Monday. This will send a weak front southward toward the Gulf
coast that will gradually dissipate through the end of the week.
The upper trough, weak sfc boundary along with plenty of deep
layer moisture will maintain an unsettled pattern with scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms each day. Development will
be most numerous offshore in the morning and spread inland through
the afternoon. /13
MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024
No significant marine impacts are expected, other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. A light
to moderate east to southeast flow will continue through the middle
of next week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 89 73 90 73 92 73 91 / 20 50 20 40 20 40 40 70
Pensacola 77 90 77 91 77 91 76 90 / 10 50 10 40 20 50 40 70
Destin 78 90 78 92 78 92 77 91 / 10 30 10 30 30 50 50 70
Evergreen 72 95 70 95 70 95 70 91 / 20 30 10 20 10 30 30 70
Waynesboro 72 90 70 92 70 92 70 91 / 20 50 10 30 10 30 20 70
Camden 72 93 71 92 70 92 70 89 / 20 30 10 20 10 30 20 70
Crestview 73 94 71 95 72 94 72 91 / 10 30 0 30 20 50 30 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 10:40 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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