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216 FXUS64 KMOB 300948AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL448 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday night)Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024A mid/upper ridge will continue over the region into the weekend before breaking down Saturday night as a upper trough sets up over the eastern CONUS. A surface ridge extending from the Western Atlantic across the Southeast States will persist through Friday night, and then weaken on Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms developing over the Gulf and along the coast will continue to move inland early this morning. Mainly scattered showers and storms will then advance inland with the sea-breeze through this afternoon. Most convection across the area will mainly be suppressed by midnight, followed by a similar pattern repeating itself on Saturday. Highs today and Saturday will range from 89 to 94 degrees with heat indices as high as 104 degrees for some locations. Lows tonight and Saturday night should range from 70 to 75 degrees inland, and from 75 to 80 degrees closer to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for today and Saturday. /22&&.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...(Sunday night through Thursday)Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off Sunday into Monday night, quickly being replaced by an upper ridge building west from the Caribbean over the northern Gulf coast. A surface ridge stretching west over the Florida Peninsula shifts north to over the eastern Conus and builds, with a stronger southeasterly flow bringing Gulf and tropical Atlantic moisture inland over more of the Southeast (as opposed to just the Lower Mississippi River Valley and nearby). Moisture levels rise to around 2", plus or minus, into Tuesday, with rain chances increasing into mid week in response. The uptick in rain coverage will help to bring a drop in temperatures, from a bit above seasonal norms on Sunday and Monday (around 90 to near 95) to mid 80s to near 90 on Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime heat indices in the 100-107 degree range Sunday and Monday drop to below 100 by Thursday. Guidance is in good agreement with the synoptics through Wednesday, so have good confidence with the current package.The more organized southeasterly flow with this packages is bringing an uptick in swell to area beaches. A decrease in the tidal cycle will help to moderate the chance of rip currents, with a moderate risk over more of the forecast for most of the forecast./16 &&.MARINE...Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week and over the weekend as a light to moderate east to southeast flow prevails. /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 90 75 90 73 91 73 93 73 / 60 30 50 20 40 20 50 40 Pensacola 89 77 90 76 88 77 92 77 / 60 20 50 10 30 20 50 40 Destin 90 78 90 77 89 78 92 78 / 40 10 30 10 30 20 50 40 Evergreen 94 70 95 70 94 71 95 70 / 30 10 30 10 20 10 40 30 Waynesboro 91 71 91 70 91 70 94 70 / 40 20 40 10 30 20 40 30 Camden 92 71 92 70 91 70 93 70 / 20 20 30 10 20 10 40 30 Crestview 92 72 94 71 93 72 95 73 / 40 10 20 10 20 10 50 30 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
