PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 12:41 PM CDT587
FXUS63 KPAH 311741
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to the region, mainly this afternoon and
tonight.
- It will dry out gradually Sunday, with cooler and less humid
conditions expected for Labor Day.
- Temperatures will remain near seasonable values for much of
next week, with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms
forecast for the latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Today through Sunday night...A cold front located across the
Midwest will push south and east into the region today through
tonight. This will bring the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms that much of area has seen in a few weeks. The
overnight and morning hours will be fairly dry, but thunderstorm
coverage will increase this afternoon thanks to diurnal
heating. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler thanks to
plentiful cloud cover, reaching the middle to upper 80s.
However, dew point temperatures will be sticky, generally in the
lower to middle 70s.
The environment will be pretty typical for late summer: very
warm, moist, and unstable, but also weakly sheared with poor
lapse rates. SPC has a good part of the area outlooked for a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today, but overall the
threat looks to be quite low. Any severe risk would be from
collapsing thunderstorm cores causing strong downburst winds.
PWAT values will be 1.75-2.0" over much of the area (around the
95th percentile via the NAEFS guidance), so locally heavy
downpours are a good bet. A few spots may get lucky and pick up
a quick 1"+ of rain. However, the chances of widespread soaking
rains look low. The latest NBM ensemble guidance gives the area
a 30-60% chance of seeing 0.50" of rain through Sunday evening,
and a 25% or less chance of 1.0" of rainfall. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will wane tonight with the loss of diurnal
heating. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the middle to
upper 60s in most spots.
On Sunday, a few showers and storms will fire across southern
parts of the region near the AR and TN borders. Areas further
north look to stay dry with cooler and less humid air filtering
southward behind the cold front. High temperatures will reach
the middle to upper 80s, but dew point temperatures will drop
into the lower to middle 60s from north the south. Overall, it
will feel more comfortable than today. Low temperatures Sunday
night will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s under mostly
clear skies.
Labor Day (Monday) through Tuesday night...A very welcome break
from the heat and humidity is forecast for Labor Day through
Tuesday evening. Mid-level troughing over the eastern CONUS and
cool Canadian high pressure will keep high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s both days, with very comfortable humidity
levels thanks to northeast surface winds. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s at most
locations.
Wednesday through Friday night...Temperature and humidity
levels will begin to creep upward for the second half of next
week. High temperatures look to reach the middle to upper 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will also
increase as low pressure organized over the southern Great
Plains and moves northeast towards the area. Model guidance
regarding the timing of the precipitation is poor, and the NBM
has smoothed the distribution of solutions to result in a long
period of slgt chc to chc PoPs Wednesday through Friday night.
There will likely be a lot dry time during this period, but it
will take a few days for the details to be worked out. Sometime
in the Friday to next Saturday period, another cold front will
push into the region, bringing a return of more comfortable
temperature and humidity levels.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024
Regional radar is beginning to show the development of showers
and thunderstorms along a front that stretches across the
region. Mainly VFR is expected into the early evening, although
showers and storms may bring brief MVFR cigs and visby to
terminals. Coverage of showers and storms should wane overnight,
with the potential for fog development early Sunday morning.
Winds will be light generally around 5 knots or less.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 12:41 PM CDT---------------
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