IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 10:24 PM EDT657
FXUS63 KIND 310224
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1024 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some thunderstorms this evening through Saturday.
- Cooler weather with lower humidity end of the weekend and into
next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Only minor adjustments for the overnight forecast this evening,
primarily adjusting PoPs for ongoing showers/storms and trends in
the next few hours.
Scattered showers and storms continue across primarily central and
northern portions of the area this evening. This activity will
continue to push east/northeastward, with additional development
possible overnight as a boundary continues to sag into the area.
Intensity should continue to slowly wane as instability weakens
diurnally, though a slight uptick in low-midlevel flow at 850/700 mb
may help to compensate a bit and allow additional development along
the boundary and other lingering outflows. That said, tropospheric
flow is modest at best and will remain so despite this slight
increase.
Rain cooled air may allow lows to get down into the upper 60s across
portions of the area, with lows in the low 70s otherwise as lower
dewpoints lag the initial cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Today will be the last hot day for at least a while as a cold front
drops through tonight. The front is draped over Michigan to northern
Illinois as of this afternoon, slowly pushing SE. A few other
mesoscale boundaries have impacted parts of central Indiana today
impacting temperatures and cloud coverage. An undular bore kept
things cooler and more stable across the NW earlier today but that
has since dispersed and temperatures are again warming towards
90. The rest of the forecast area has been allowed to heat up to
the mid 90s under scattered clouds and deep mixing and even
setting a new record high for Indianapolis.
The actual cold front associated with the low pressure system over
Canada will move through late tonight through tomorrow with chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. The rain coverage
looks to dissipate as it tracks across the forecast area tomorrow.
With the front moving through overnight and a shift to northwesterly
winds, tomorrows highs will be much cooler and are expected to max
out in the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
After some of the hottest temperatures of the summer, the long term
period will bring much needed relief to Central Indiana with
temperatures closer to normal and much lower humidity.
An area of high pressure dives southeast out of the Canadian
Prairies on Sunday and will be the main weather influence over
Central Indiana's weather through mid to late next week. While the
main frontal passage occurs on Saturday, the cooler, drier air will
be lagging some behind the front resulting in a tight north to south
temperature and humidity gradient across the state. Highs Sunday
will likely reach the mid to upper 80s for Central and South Central
Indiana with lower 80s further north. Sunday and early next week's
temperature forecast may also be dependent on how much rainfall
occurs today and Saturday. If precipitation is lighter than
expected, drier grounds and lower soil moisture may allow for the
surface to heat up faster than what guidance suggests.
Cool and dry air advection aloft increases early next week as high
pressure slowly traverses the Great Lakes region. Highs Monday and
Tuesday will likely reach the upper 70s to low 80s with afternoon
dew point values dropping into the 40s! Like mentioned above,
drier grounds may result in afternoon highs exceeding guidance.
High pressure shifts off to the northeast mid to late next week with
mid and upper level ridging building back over the Ohio Valley and
Great lakes resulting in a warming trend back to at least the mid
80s and slowly rising humidity values. Longer range guidance
indicates a frontal boundary approaching the area by the end of the
week or early next weekend bringing the next chance for rain and
thunderstorms. It is too soon to look at specifics or severe
potential due to model discrepancies so far out. High confidence
exists in a dry week ahead with soil moisture falling each day.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
Impacts:
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms at times tonight into
Saturday.
- MVFR conditions possible in convection and late tonight into
Saturday morning in patchy fog and low ceilings.
Discussion:
A slowly approaching cold front will produce showers at times, along
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Timing this activity will
be somewhat difficult as forcing is weak and pre-frontal activity is
occurring as well. Will carry VCTS at times and use TEMPO groups
where confidence is a bit higher (such as LAF in the next couple of
hours).
Overnight, should see a lowering trend in ceilings, and perhaps
development of some patchy light fog in the very humid airmass,
depending upon shower coverage. MVFR ceilings will continue into
Saturday morning before lifting back to VFR by late morning into
early afternoon. Lingering showers and storms will come to an end
during the afternoon hours.
Winds throughout the period will be 10KT or less, generally
southwesterly early, and westerly or northwesterly later in the
period. Some variability is likely overnight tonight, particularly
in the vicinity of showers and storms.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 10:24 PM EDT---------------
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