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815 FXUS64 KMOB 262052AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday)Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024An upper level ridge will continue across the area through the period. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will remain centered over theMid-Atlantic states. This deep layer ridging will act to suppressmost convection across the area along with keeping temps above normal. Precipitable water values climb above two inches near the coast by Tuesday afternoon which will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours in those areas. The northern half of the area will remain dry and hot as a drier airmass remains. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will again be in the low to mid 90s. /13.SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024For the first half of the extended, our region will be located inbetween two upper lows; one over Texas and the other near the Florida Peninsula. At the same time, a mid-level ridge, along withhigh pressure at the surface, expands from the western Atlantic into the southeastern US. Although ample moisture will be in place, overall forcing looks rather limited given the ridging in place as well as no notable surface features moving into the region other than the typical diurnal seabreeze circulation. Due to this, have tapered PoPs to around 30 percent for our northern counties and to around 50 percent for our coastal counties. If this trend continues, would not be surprised to see PoPs lowered even further through Friday. Models diverge as we get into the weekend, with the GFS suggesting that the pattern described above lingers into Monday, whereas the Euro calls for a weakening of these features and a strengthening of an upper ridge over the western Gulf. If the GFS solution pans out, expect the forecast to remain rather similar to the forecast for the first half of the period. The Euro solution, on the other hand, looks to be the wetter of the two solutions due to northwesterlyupper-level flow setting up, helping to send multiple embedded shortwaves into the area. Due to this uncertainty, maintained a general 40-50% rain chance across the local area. Highs each day will top out in the low to mid 90s. At this time, heat indices in general should stay just under Heat Advisory criteria, thanks to the potential for some modest dew point mixing given the ridging aloft, although a few localized spots reaching the 108-110 degree range cannot be ruled out. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. A Low risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week. /96&&.MARINE...Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /13&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 75 94 75 92 75 93 75 92 / 10 40 20 50 20 50 20 50 Pensacola 77 92 78 91 77 92 78 91 / 20 40 30 50 20 50 20 50 Destin 78 91 79 91 79 92 78 90 / 30 50 30 40 20 40 20 40 Evergreen 70 95 73 95 72 96 73 95 / 0 30 10 30 10 30 10 30 Waynesboro 70 97 73 95 72 97 72 95 / 0 10 10 30 10 40 10 30 Camden 70 94 73 95 73 95 73 94 / 0 10 10 30 10 30 10 30 Crestview 73 93 73 94 72 96 72 94 / 20 40 20 50 20 40 10 40 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
