[Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 3:49 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 3:49 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

102 
FXUS64 KLIX 270849
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
349 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Upper ridge centered near St. Louis this morning. The old upper
low was centered west of Houston, and there was a northern stream
shortwave along the Montana-North Dakota border, with another over
Vancouver Island. At the surface, high pressure was centered over
western North Carolina. The 00z LIX sounding carried a
precipitable water value of 1.81 inches, quite different from both
the JAN (1.1) and LCH (2.1) soundings. Radar at 3 AM CDT showed
very little in the way of precipitation across the local area.
Temperatures at that time were mainly in the mid and upper 70s, 
but ranged from 72 at McComb to 84 at Lakefront Airport.

The center of the upper ridge will drift southeastward over the
next 36 hours and be near Atlanta Wednesday evening, as the Texas
upper low continues to track westward toward the Big Bend area.
Easterly flow at the lower levels will gradually become
southeasterly, especially late in the day on Wednesday.
Precipitable water values are expected to increase to around 2
inches from Interstate 10 southward this afternoon, and range from
2 to 2.25 inches across the area by Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring an increase in areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
especially noticeable on Wednesday afternoon.

High temperatures today should be near or slightly below what we
saw Monday afternoon, generally in the lower and middle 90s. Did
nudge down forecast dewpoints a degree or two during the daytime
hours today, as the NBM numbers have been running a bit higher
than reality. Overall, heat index values should remain just below
advisory criteria. On Wednesday, more significant cloud cover and
convective development will hold high temperatures close to 90 
for much of the area, except perhaps extreme northeast portions of
the area, where mid 90s are still somewhat possible. This should 
keep the area out of advisory criteria again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Medium range modeling has shown just enough of an eastward shift
in the upper pattern for late in the week into the weekend to have
an impact on the local weather. Yesterday morning, the medium
range models indicated that the deeper moisture plume moving 
northward around the west end of surface high pressure across east
Texas and western Louisiana would keep more concentrated rainfall
west of the local area. This morning's solutions have shifted that
a bit eastward. Precipitable water values are expected to increase
to above 2 inches areawide Wednesday, and if GFSBufr soundings are
to be believed, will remain above 2 inches through the weekend.
With shortwave energy moving northward from the Gulf for several
days between the ridges to the west and east, that's expected to 
make conditions rather favorable for convective development that 
may not be completely limited to the daytime hours. The most 
favorable conditions will be over the southwestern half of the 
area, but can't be precluded elsewhere. While the NBM PoPs are a 
bit higher than either of the global operational models, they 
don't appear to be unreasonable. With forecast precipitable water 
values remaining above 2 inches for the foreseeable future, we'll 
need to keep an eye on the potential for efficient rainfall rates
and eventual hydrologic issues. At least for now, widespread 
issues aren't anticipated, as vegetation is getting a bit crunchy 
in most areas and rainfall would actually be helpful.

The one benefit to better rain chances would be to hold
temperatures down. Yes, it'll be humid, but with the clouds to
balance things out, heat index values should be at least
tolerable. Won't make adjustments to the NBM high temperatures, as
they seem to account for the increased precipitation chances. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

All terminals under VFR conditions and this is expected to
maintain through the period. In the mid-morning hours there is a 
possibility of VCTS building on sea/lake breeze boundaries, 
particularly KGPT, KNEW, and possibly KMSY and midday on the 
beginnings of land based convection at KHUM. /Schlotz/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Not a lot of change in expectations over marine areas, with wind
speeds generally expected to remain below 15 knots. As is usual, a
few spots could get pretty close to that 15 knots for a few hours
during the evening over the open waters, but that would be the
exception to the rule. The larger concern will remain the threat
for thunderstorms. That will be primarily during the overnight and
morning hours over the open waters, and during the day over the
tidal lakes. That threat is likely to continue through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  73  92  73 /  20  10  60  20 
BTR  98  78  93  76 /  30  10  60  30 
ASD  95  75  91  74 /  40  30  70  40 
MSY  93  78  90  78 /  40  30  80  40 
GPT  93  77  90  77 /  40  30  70  40 
PQL  96  76  94  76 /  50  40  70  30 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RW

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 3:49 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

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