IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 2:19 PM EDT091
FXUS63 KIWX 301819
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
219 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon through late evening. A few of these storms
might become strong with gusty winds and small hail.
- A High Swim Risk on Lake Michigan Beaches expected Sunday.
Otherwise, pleasant weather with drier and more mild
temperatures expected through Labor Day Weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
It'll be another warm and humid afternoon as mid/upper level
ridging holds on for one more day. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s where greatest evapotranspiration is occuring will
leave us feeling muggy in most locations. Drink plenty of fluids
if you plan on spending time outdoors during peak heating.
A cold front will begin to work its way through our area this
evening and through the overnight hours. Out ahead of this
front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (40-65%
chance) will develop. Environmental conditions do not appear
very conducive for robust severe thunderstorms. However, 15Z-
satellite and surface analysis shows an outflow boundary now
transecting our CWA, and 14Z forecast RAP suggests an area of
enhanced (but on the weak side) 0- 6km shear between 20-30kt,
along with moderate ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg; residing mainly
south of US-6 and west of US-31. Assuming convection can
overcome some inhibition, which CAMs and model soundings suggest
will happen, some of these storms may produce small hail and a
strong to marginally severe wind gust late this afternoon into
evening, especially in the aforementioned area in N Central
Indiana.
Our weather for the extended 3 day weekend will be excellent
with high temperatures and relative humidity noticeably more
pleasant beginning Saturday. Labor Day itself will see the
coolest temperatures as lows bottom out around 50 degrees and we
only warm up into the low/mid 70s. Not cold, but much better
than earlier this week if I do say so myself. For Sunday, keep
an eye on tents/canopies/umbrellas as north to northwest winds
will be a bit breezy with gusts 20-25 mph, especially across
northwest IN and southwest MI.
Unfortunately, the cooler north winds won't bring completely
good news. We have high confidence in a High Swim Risk for
southeast Lake Michigan beaches on Sunday as wave heights will
grow to near 6 feet. These waves and currents might trickle into
Monday, so be sure to check your local beaches on Monday; and
avoid swimming at all on Sunday.
Dry and mild weather will continue through much of the work
week before models hint at an amplifying pattern with troughing
occuring across the Great Lakes region. Will let model blended
PoPs ride on Friday with the expectation that an unstable
airmass and possible front might be in the vicinity, making
isolated chances (15-20%) sound reasonable.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
VFR ceilings of about 5 to 7 kft will persist through
this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and storms are
possible this afternoon and evening along a cold front that will
move west to east through the area. There could be gusts up to
15 to 20 kts, with higher gusts possible within any storms.
Scattered showers may linger overnight along the US 24 corridor.
In the wake of the cold front, fog will be possible Saturday
morning, especially at KFWA. Winds will become light and clouds
should clear out overnight. The NBM has a 25% chance of MVFR
visibilities between 5-9 AM EDT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 30, 2:19 PM EDT---------------
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