LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 11:46 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...518
FXUS64 KLIX 270446
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Typical Summer day with warm humid conditions and isolated
storms. Luckily it we remained a little drier than what we have
seen most of the Summer and this helped keep the more oppressive
conditions in check with most of the area seeing the heat index
run into the 100-105 range. Convection was also suppressed some
thanks to the mid lvl low moving into the central TX coast which
pulled the deeper moisture to the west and the ridge building
across the MID MS Valley and into the sern CONUS.
Over the next few days the ridge will continue to work to the ESE
becoming centered over the srn Appalachians and portions of the
sern CONUS. This will place the region in general east-southeast
to southeast flow and allow moisture to slowly rebuild over the
area with PWs back up 2" possibly up to 2.25" tomorrow and
Wednesday. Mid lvl temps also look to cool to around -6C. Both of
these suggest better rain probabilities but the one question would
be is how close to the center of the ridge we will be because
there is likely going to be a sharper cut off of scattered to
numerous storms and more isolated to widely scattered activity.
Overall holding off on any wholesale changes to the NBM but am
knocking down PoPs a tad on the northeast side of the CWA which
will be closer to the center of the ridge. As for temps and heat
concerns, dewpoints will still struggle to surge tomorrow and
the area will likely see dewpoints fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s over most of the area again and that would be just dry
enough to keep heat index values from getting to or much abv 108.
In addition if there is a good bit more convection cloud cover
should help keep temps in check a little as well. The cloud cover
is likely the bigger factor for Wednesday helping to keep the
afternoon temps down a tad but dewpoints will be a touch higher as
well. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Heading into the back half of the work week and weekend rain
chances look to remain near to slightly abv normal. The ridge
will be in control over the sern CONUS through Friday but as the
ridge amplifies over the Rockies Heading into the weekend there
will troughing on the east side in response. This places us in
the weakness between the ridge centered over the continental
divide3 and the weak ridge over the Bahamas and FL. Rich tropical
moisture over the area would suggest and broad troughing aloft
would suggest decent rain chances this weekend but will be highly
dictated by diurnal conditions. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
All terminals under VFR conditions and this is expected to
maintain through the period. In the mid-morning hours there is a
possibility of VCTS building on sea/lake breeze boundaries,
particularly KGPT, KNEW, and possibly KMSY and midday on the
beginnings of land based convection at KHUM. /Schlotz/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Wind speeds remain on the light to moderate side. Forecast
guidance continues to keep wind speeds over the open waters
generally below 15 knots, although wouldn't totally rule out brief
periods during the evening hours that could see winds nudge a
little higher especially just east of the MS delta. The larger
concern for mariners will be the threat of thunderstorms,
primarily during the overnight and morning hours over the open
waters, and during the afternoon over the tidal lakes. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 72 94 73 / 10 0 10 10
BTR 97 76 97 77 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 30
MSY 93 78 94 78 / 30 10 40 30
GPT 94 76 92 76 / 10 10 40 30
PQL 97 75 96 75 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 11:46 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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