CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:15 AM EDT522
FXUS61 KCLE 310715
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits today. Secondary cold front passes through the
southern Great Lakes Sunday. High pressure then dominates
through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface low on the IN/OH border providing the trigger for a cluster
of showers/storms moving east northeastward towards Sandusky Bay. IR
satellite imagery showing this is the only area in the region of
convective activity still with cooling cloud tops at the time of
this issuance, with cells further upstream on the wane/experiencing
cloud top warming. Cold front and its track through the CWA will be
the key to clearing out the airmass and taking the convection with
it, but it might take until around the 18-19Z timeframe or so today
as the aforementioned weak wave of surface low pressure along the
front holds up the forward progress somewhat. Expecting the
frontogenesis to strengthen after 12Z today as it begins to move
through the southern zones, and will expect an reorganization of the
line as it heads towards the CWA border to the southeast. The
passage of the first cold front will bring an airmass change, and
this change will be amplified by a secondary cold front that will
push through north to south 15-21Z Sunday. Will have some showers
possible with this and added low end POPs to the forecast for Sunday
for a few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will gradually build east into the Great
Lakes region Sunday night and persist overhead through the short
term period. Temperatures will be well below their normal values as
a much cooler airmass remains in place behind the reinforcing cold
front. Overnight lows Sunday night settle in the low 50s for most,
slightly warmer in the mid 50s along the lakeshore. Coolest day will
be Monday as high temperatures rise into the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows dipping into the mid 40s to low 50s. Still below
normal by Tuesday but slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper
70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will gradually exit east through the long term
forecast period, but expect dry weather to persist through Thursday
night. Unsettled weather returns Friday as our next upper trough and
accompanying surface cold front move toward the eastern Great Lakes
Thursday night into Friday. For now, kept low end PoPs (less than
30%) on Friday.
Temperatures return to their normal values Wednesday with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday will feature temperatures a few degrees warmer than normal
as highs rise into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Slightly cooler Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s as the cold front approaches the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Clusters of storms will persist for the next few hours through
the overnight period, and have timed this in prevailing/TEMPOs
going forward. Terminals that are not currently in line for
ongoing convective activity but have increasing chances later in
the period have the designation of VCTS/CB to cover the
potential. Otherwise, a slow moving cold front is tracking west
to east across the region, but will take several hours to
complete its trek completely through all of the TAF sites for
our area. Until it clears out to the southeast, showers and
storms remain in the forecast. During the forecast window,
winds become northwesterly 10kts behind the front, becoming
westerly and then southwesterly around 10kts by 06Z Sunday. Some
MVFR ceilings for a few hours after 11Z this morning is possible
in the wake of the cold front FL020-030.
Outlook...VFR expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally northeasterly winds 8-12 knots will continue across the
lake through this afternoon before a cold front swings eastward.
Winds turn southwesterly behind the initial cold front late this
afternoon and evening but will remain between 8-12 knots. Deep
trough and accompanying cold front will swing across Lake Erie on
Sunday. Southwest to west winds will increase to 15-20 knots ahead
of the secondary cold front early Sunday morning before turning
northerly behind the cold front on Sunday afternoon. The elevated
onshore flow will allow for wave heights to build to 2-4 feet across
nearshore zones in the central and eastern basins. Canadian high
pressure builds over the Great Lakes region Monday and will allow
for northerly winds to decrease below 15 knots by Monday afternoon.
High pressure remains over the region through late next week and
will lead to a period of quiet marine conditions Monday onward.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Iverson
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:15 AM EDT---------------
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