LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 6:34 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...110
FXUS64 KLIX 261134
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Upper ridging centered near Kansas City early this morning. Upper
low over the Gulf of Mexico was approaching Houston. Upper troughs
were over New England and near Salt Lake City. Surface high was
centered over western North Carolina. Only very isolated
precipitation was noted over the Gulf early this morning, much
less than 24 hours ago. Temperatures and dew points were generally
in the 70s early this morning.
The upper low near Houston will continue to move into Texas today,
temporarily pulling the higher moisture levels with it. The ridge
will shift eastward a bit over the next 36 hours and be centered
north of Memphis tomorrow evening. Precipitable water values were
in the 1.9 to 2 inch range along the Gulf Coast on the 00z
soundings last evening, but are expected to drop into the 1.5 to
1.8 range today. The Sunday moisture levels will return by Tuesday
afternoon. What this means for the forecast is that we should see
less areal coverage of showers and storms today as compared to
yesterday, but tomorrow should look a lot like Sunday.
With less cloud cover and precipitation today, high temperatures
should top out a bit higher than on Sunday, with most of the area
in the lower to middle 90s. A few isolated spots could see heat
index values top out close to the 108F criteria for Heat
Advisories, but the areal extent of that isn't large enough to
justify an advisory today. For tomorrow, timing of convective
development will probably be later than what it was on Sunday, so
it's not likely to have as much of an impact on high temperatures
as it did yesterday. Forecast soundings show convective
temperatures around 93F tomorrow afternoon, so there may not be
much development prior to 18z. Highs should end up being pretty
close to today's highs, and with dew points a couple degrees
higher, areal coverage of heat index values at or above 108 may be
sufficient for an advisory. We'll take additional looks at this
during the day today and overnight tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Upper ridge is expected to continue eastward to the Carolinas on
Thursday as a western ridge moves to the Four Corners area, or
perhaps a bit north of there depending on your choice of medium
range model solutions. In between, troughing will extend from the
Great Lakes into eastern Texas. The southern end of that trough
will eventually get stretched out east-west over the weekend along
Interstate 40. The surface pattern will more closely resemble a
Bermuda High setup. That generally provides a more "normal" summer
weather regime with scattered afternoon convection over land, and
late night over the Gulf. Forecast soundings indicate that the day
with the highest moisture content will be Wednesday, where
soundings generally fall in the 2.0 to 2.2 range. That should mean
the best rain chances, as well as the "coolest" high temperatures,
will occur on Wednesday. However, "cooler" is only a couple of
degrees, as it'll probably be midday before much convection develops.
Still likely to be pretty close to advisory criteria.
Beyond Wednesday, the medium range models take several pieces of
energy northward around the west side of the high, primarily over
western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Moisture levels will be
somewhat less over the northeastern portion of the CWA for the end
of the week into the weekend, so the higher rain chances will
primarily be over southern and western areas such as New Orleans,
Houma/Thibodaux and perhaps as far north as Baton Rouge. Rain
chances will be somewhat lower along the Mississippi coast,
Northshore and southwest Mississippi. That also fits the general
temperature forecast, with no targets of opportunity that would
provide a significant improvement over the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period. The
only terminal where precipitation probabilities are high enough to
justify mention in terminals is KHUM, and even there, VCTS may be
overstating things. Any convection that does develop late this
morning or this afternoon should dissipate prior to sunset.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Wind speeds have relaxed over the coastal waters, and will
discontinue Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines with forecast
issuance. At this time, forecast guidance keeps wind speeds over
the open waters generally below 15 knots, although wouldn't
totally rule out brief periods during the evening hours that could
see winds nudge a little higher than that over the far outer
waters. The larger concern for mariners will be the threat of
thunderstorms, primarily during the overnight and morning hours
over the open waters, and during the afternoon over the tidal
lakes.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 94 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 10
BTR 97 76 98 77 / 20 10 10 10
ASD 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 30
MSY 93 78 93 78 / 30 10 30 30
GPT 94 76 93 77 / 10 10 40 30
PQL 97 74 96 76 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 6:34 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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