LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 6:42 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...709
FXUS64 KLIX 252342
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
642 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
There was almost a 1 inch difference between the PW on the KLCH
sounding this morning and our local sounding (1.2" vs 2.1"). For
perspective, thats roughly the 10th percentile to the 90th
percentile for this time of year over just a couple hundred miles.
Let's call it a "Bayou Dryline"...HA. So what's going on is dry
air situated along the Appalachian Mountains is being drawn
southwestward by both a strong upper level ridge centered near the
Central Plains and some version of a TUTT low/inverted trough in
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical moisture within the trough
in the Gulf has been skirting the northern Gulf Coast and is
currently moving across southern MS and LA. Timing is the reason
there's such a big difference in atmospheric column moisture
between KLIX and KLCH where the plume of moisture moved into SELA
early this morning and hadn't gotten to SWLA just yet. The low,
and associated ongoing showers seen on radar, are quickly moving
westward towards TX. Its this reason that shower activity will be
shifting south and westward tonight into Monday. At the same time,
the upper ridge to the norther will slide east towards the mid
Mississippi Valley and expand slightly farther south behind the
upper trough moving into TX. With slightly higher 500mb heights
and less shower activity/cloud cover, expecting to see a slight
bump in temperatures on Monday. Although highs in the mid to upper
90s, dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s should keep heat
indicies from getting too high.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Going into the middle of the week, the upper ridge to the north
moves east towards the southeastern CONUS. As it does so, a trough
digging south across the Great Lakes, weakens that high pressure
system. In doing so, another easterly wave of moisture coming across
the Gulf will be able to extend a bit further north than then
current one. Thus, with PW's in the 2+" range and temps will into
the 90s, should see scattered to numerous showers with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms. Unlike the current environment in
place, higher low level moisture looks to lead to higher
dewpoints. Latest forecast heat index values possibly Tuesday, but
moreso Wednesday, could require the need for a heat advisory.
The remainder of the forecast period falls into more of a summertime
pattern as the upper ridge all but dissipates. This taking place
will take away any subsidence that may have been limiting convective
coverage. Typical ample moisture will still be in place over the CWA
along with normal to above normal temps. Therefore, expecting daily
afternoon thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
With instability waning, isolated SH/TS have decreased in coverage
over the area and VCSH wording will be dropped from all TAFs by
0200 UTC. VFR conditions prevail overnight with light, easterly
winds. Expect to see flare up of more convection primarily
confined to the Louisiana coast on Monday so have refrained from
adding any lines to MSY/NEW/BTR/GPT for now though if guidance
increases confidence in some impacts they get added in subsequent
forecasts. PROB30 added to HUM where confidence is higher in
seeing SH/TS between 1800-2200 UTC.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
East to southeast winds are expected to continue across marine zones
throughout the forecast period due to surface ridge remaining
centered northeast of the local area. While brief periods could
see winds in the 12 to 15 knot range, do not see much indication
of conditions higher than that which are not associated with
thunderstorms. There will be the potential for thunderstorms
during the late night and morning hours each day, however.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 94 71 95 / 0 10 0 20
BTR 75 97 76 98 / 10 30 0 30
ASD 72 96 74 94 / 10 20 10 40
MSY 77 94 78 93 / 10 40 10 50
GPT 74 93 75 92 / 10 20 20 50
PQL 72 97 75 96 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 6:42 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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