Request an account for access beyond The Archives!
512 FXUS64 KMOB 241002AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Sunday night)Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024Pleasant autumn-esque conditions persist this morning with temperatures hovering in the 60s and 70s while dewpoints crater into the 50s and 60s. Yes, there are a few inland sites with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s this morning. Enjoy the dryness to the air as it won't last much longer.Showers continue to drift westward across our Gulf waters this morning, similar to yesterday morning. This activity will stay offshore this morning and will not impact inland locations, although the showers may briefly slide across parts of Ft Morgan and Dauphin Island before 11z this morning. This activity will persist through mid-morning before it slides out of our coastal waters again. The showers are associated with the weak upper low/trough that is hovering over the northern Gulf this morning. Throughout the weekend, the low/trough will retrograde westward across the north central Gulf underneath a sprawling ridge aloft. As the ridge builds out of the Southern Plains to the northeast and the low/trough drifts westward, our northeasterly winds aloft will gradually turn more easterly overnight tonight into Sunday. Down at the surface, the local area remains on the southwest periphery of a high draped over the Northeast and Atlantic which will keep winds easterly through the weekend. Dry air continues to get dragged into the area this morning with PWATs remaining below 1.5 inches through at least mid-day today. Some of the high-res guidance indicates another slug of dry-ish air filtering into the region overnight, especially across inland communities. This pattern keeps the majority of our land areas dry this weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop late this afternoon through early this evening, mainly across northwest Florida. As the axis of the upper trough/low retrogrades westward on Sunday, the chance for showers and storms also shifts into coastal Alabama and southeast Mississippi during the afternoon hours (still anticipate only isolated coverage). That said, given the proximity of the upper low to our Gulf waters, rain chances will remain higher over the water through the weekend, especially in the overnight and early morning hours.Beach Note: The risk of rip currents is now HIGH along the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches TODAY. Surf heights remain around 3-4 feet today with low tide expected in the afternoon hours. The surf should gradually decrease through the late afternoon hours and conditions at local beaches should improve late this afternoon. Most, if not all, of our local beaches upgraded to red flags yesterday in similar conditions and the RCMOS guidance also indicates a brief HIGH risk period through early afternoon today. The risk is expected to be MODERATE tonight through Monday night. 07/mb&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024A large upper ridge centered over Kansas/Missouri which extends toacross the southeast states gradually becomes centered over theeast central states through Wednesday then looks to weaken a bitthrough Friday. A surface ridge over the southeastern states slowly shifts to become oriented mostly across the northern Gulf coast through Wednesday and likewise weakens somewhat in the process. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge will suppresses convective development over interior areas through Tuesday while closer to the coast isolated to scattered development is possible each day, mainly with the sea breeze. The pattern allows for improving deep layer moisture to be ushered into the area Wednesday into Friday, especially with the weakeningof the upper ridge. With the convective environment slowlybecoming more favorable, have gone with slight chance to chancepops for the southern half of the area on Wednesday (dry furtherinland) which trends to chance pops for essentially the entirearea by Friday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s then trend a bit warmer to mostly in the mid 90s forWednesday through Friday, with some locations reaching the upper90s. May see some spots near the coast potentially reach heatadvisory criteria of 108 late in the week. Lows Monday night range from the upper 60s well inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast then slowly trend a bit milder through Thursday night to range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.A moderate risk of rip currents on Monday will be followed by a low risk for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29&&.MARINE...Issued at 502 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024High-end exercise caution conditions persist across the Gulf waters this morning with gusts up to 25 knots. Exercise caution conditions will persist through early this afternoon with another round of near exercise caution conditions expected again tonight. Chances for showers and storms remain higher in the overnight hours and should persist through early each morning. 07/mb&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 92 73 93 72 94 72 95 75 / 10 10 20 10 20 10 20 10 Pensacola 90 76 92 75 93 76 93 78 / 20 30 20 10 20 10 30 10 Destin 89 76 93 77 93 77 93 78 / 40 40 20 10 20 20 30 20 Evergreen 92 69 93 68 95 69 96 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 92 69 94 67 95 68 97 69 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 91 68 92 67 93 69 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 91 70 94 70 95 72 95 72 / 20 20 10 0 20 10 20 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
