ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 16, 1:20 AM EDT197
FXUS61 KILN 160520
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
120 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough will give way to
building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a
period of dry weather. This ridge will exit quickly on Thursday
with scattered showers expected to enter overnight, prompted by
shortwave energy aloft. Friday will see a better chance of, and
more, widespread shower activity.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clouds will continue to decrease overnight as low pressure
pulls away to the east. Radiational cooling combined with
lingering surface moisture may cause patches of fog to develop
late tonight. This is quite apparent in the GLAMP so have
introduced the potential into the grids. Lows will be a bit
cooler with temperatures dropping into the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A building ridge of high pressure will cross the region to the
east during the day. Behind the ridge axis, showers are expected
to enter the region from the west. Went with drier models which
had a stronger consensus in keeping any rain out of the CWA
through daytime hours. Some few showers will push into the west
in the evening, with an increasing chance overnight.
More sunshine on Thursday will help push highs to the mid and
upper 70s with warm advection and insolation.
Partly cloudy skies will increase from the west overnight ahead
of the next round of showers working in. Overnight lows will
drop to the lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active weather pattern to continue late this week into this
weekend. West-northwest mid level flow with moisture increasing
and lead shortwave leading to an increased chance for showers
and thunderstorms Friday.
Model solutions close off southern stream mid level low and
take it across the area this weekend. Guidance continues to show
spread in the development of this system and how quickly it
closes off. ECMWF continues to be more progressive than GFS.
This spread leads to some uncertainty, regarding the timing for
the best threat for pcpn and the ending of precipitation.
This trough will lead to continued unsettled conditions into
Saturday as the low looks to affect the area - tracking across
the region.
Precipitation chances look to diminish as ridging begins to
build into the area. Dry conditions continue overnight Sunday
into Monday as the ridge builds across the area. Pcpn chances
look to increase Tuesday into Wednesday as the next frontal
system approaches the Ohio Valley.
Due to clouds and pcpn daytime temperatures look to be within a
few degrees of normal on Friday and Saturday with mild
overnight lows.
As the ridge builds into the area - warmer temperatures will
develop Sunday into Tuesday with highs in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patches of FEW/SCT VFR cloud cover continue to linger about the
area, but there is a slow dissipating trend and skies should
trend clearer toward/beyond 09z. This will set the stage for the
development/expansion of some BR/FG, which has already
developed in a few spots where skies have trended clear. Expect
that widespread MVFR/IFR VSBYs should develop past 09z, with the
potential for some localized LIFR VSBYs, especially in the
lower Scioto Valley and NE KY. Still some uncertainty regarding
whether the VSBYs will dip to LIFR at any of the local sites,
but would expect that the prone terminals of KILN/KLUK have the
most favorable setup for IFR/LIFR VSBYs through sunrise.
Any BR/FG should dissipate toward/beyond 13z, with FEW/SCT IFR
clouds possible as the LL moisture gradually mixes out through
15z. VFR Cu should sprout once again toward/beyond 18z, but the
daytime should remain dry. Weakening ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA will
approach from the W after 00z, with the most widespread
SHRA/TSRA activity likely to hold off until around daybreak
Friday.
Light northerly winds will go more light/VRB early afternoon
before going out of the SW at around 5kts or less toward/beyond
00z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with showers and possible
thunderstorms on Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 16, 1:20 AM EDT---------------
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