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654 FXUS64 KLIX 220822AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA322 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024We will see the first surge of sfc moisture begin to move back into the area after sunset this evening. This won't be a surge in to the 80s dew pts, this should only tack on 6 to 10 degrees by Friday morning. This isn't intolerable but it is more muggy than the air that has been here for a few days. With this, we will also see more sh/ts develop mainly in the coastal waters during the morning hours. But a few of these could drift inland helping the very dry conditions in a few locations. The area is still locked with the large dome of high pressure with the H3 center over the NewMexico/WestTexas area. A large upper trough near the west coast and one over the east coast makes this looks like an omega block and this will stall for a few days locking this large high over the area but there will be one change coming. The upper trough over the east coast will dig into the Yucatan area over the next 24-36hrs. The base of this trough will cut off into an upper low and move west over the gulf. This process should start by late Friday into Saturday. But this will start to change things a bit. &&.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024As the upper low moves west over the gulf, a large plume of moisture associate with an easterly wave on its east side will funnel northward as it moves west as well. This will begin to raise rain chances by the start of the new work week. Most of the activity will still be over the nearshore waters but there will be a slow rise in rain chances inland as well into next week as easterlies take over once again. Models continue to show another front moving south toward the end of next week, but this will have "...to becontinued."&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024All terminals VFR through this taf cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024The stalled front near the coast will begin to move back north late today. Winds will begin to become more easterly to SEerly through the weekend and remain this way through the remainder of next week. Higher sh/ts chances will begin to impact the nearshore waters mainly each morning starting Friday. Higher winds and seas will be in and around these storms. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 94 70 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 97 75 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 96 73 93 72 / 0 10 20 10 MSY 95 78 92 77 / 0 10 30 10 GPT 94 73 91 73 / 10 20 20 20 PQL 97 72 94 71 / 20 20 20 20 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....TEAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
