JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 12:58 PM EDT723
FXUS63 KJKL 291658 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1258 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record or near record high temperatures are forecast through
Friday.
- A modest cool-down is expected for the weekend and beyond.
- While showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through
Sunday, the greatest potential for rain will occur on Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
A weak frontal zone extends across the OH Valley region, with the
front currently near the northern portion of the area. This
boundary should move little through early this evening. With
daytime heating and mixing temperatures have rise into the upper
80s to near 90 outside of the highest elevations above 2500 feet
as of noon. Dewpoints currently are generally in the mid 60s to
low 70s. Cumulus has developed across the region over the past
hour. Further mixing of the airmass with PW analyzed from near
1.4 inches south and southeast to near 1.6 inches north of I-64,
dewpoints during the mid to late afternoon should settle back into
the mid to upper 60s for most. Recent mesoanalysis and forecasts
through early this evening keep mid level lapse rates generally
quite meager at less than 6C/km, low level lapse rates reach
8C/km, with MLCAPE generally around 1000 J/kg from once
inhibition is lost about 18Z to early this evening. The upper
level flow is very weak and shear is as well. DCAPE is forecast to
be around 1100 J/kg during peak afternoon and evening, however.
Convective allowing models suggest cumulus develops enough for
isolated to scattered showers and storms between around 2 PM and
10 PM EDT. If stronger storms develop, they could produce some
gusty outflow winds.
Otherwise, temperatures are still on track to near the records for
JKL and LOZ this afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 858 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations and trends.
River valley fog lingers in a few locations in the Cumberland and
Kentucky basins. However, this will continue to lift and dissipate
within the next half hour or hour at the latest. Another warm day
is in store and the record high of 94 at JKL from 1991 may be
approached. LOZ will likely fall short of a record high once
again, with the record there being 95 from 2007.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
Current surface analysis has surface high pressure over much of the
southeastern CONUS. A nearly horizontal cold front is draped across
the Ohio Valley. This boundary is extended back to the next
approaching system that's tracking through the Upper Plains. Here in
eastern Kentucky, mostly clear skies are over the area. This has
allowed temperatures in the eastern valleys to fall into the low 60s
with valley fog developing. Over the next few hours, fog will
continue to develop leading to reduced visibilities in these
valleys. Fog will burn off a little bit after sunrise and a return
to mostly sunny skies is expected.
Today, the aforementioned cold front will sag southeast into the
Commonwealth and trigger another round of isolated to scattered (10-
40%) showers and storms this afternoon. Severe weather risk
appears to be largely minimal as shear, for sustaining storms, is
lacking across the area. Ahead of the front, temperatures are
forecast to climb into the low to mid-90s again with heat indices
approaching 100 degrees. Overnight tonight, lingering showers and
storms will dissipate with the setting sun and a return to mostly
clear skies is expected. Overnight valley fog will develop but
will burn off early Friday morning.
Friday brings another day of temperatures in the low to mid-90s with
heat indices around 100 degrees. Increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the day Friday as the system,
that's tracking through the Plains, approaches the area. Similarly
to Thursday, storm sustaining shear is lacking; therefore, severe
thunderstorm chances will be minimal but not zero.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by highs in the low to mid-
90s with heat indices approaching 100 degrees. Increased chances of
showers and storms exist this afternoon and again Friday as multiple
disturbances approach the area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 553 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
The period will start with a broad upper level trough extending
south from Canada over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region,
and a weakening upper level high centered over the southern
Appalachians. At the surface, the upper trough will support a
cold front from the lower Great Lakes southwestward over OK and
northern TX. Low level flow ahead of the front will be carrying
warm and humid air over our area from the southwest. With the
ridge aloft weakening and the surface front approaching, won't
rule out a few showers or storms Friday night, but most of the
night time activity will probably be further northwest, closer to
the front.
Our greatest likelihood of rain looks to begin on Saturday as
what's left of a poorly defined cold front moves into KY from the
north northwest. An upper level impulse traveling through the
trough will be responsible for the front's initial push into the
area, but the departure of this impulse to the east will allow the
front to stall nearby or just to our south. Either way, the
frontal position will probably be muddled by convective precip.
The next impulse traveling through the eastern CONUS trough will
support another cold front which will approach from the north
northwest on Sunday and move through Sunday night. The progression
of the large scale pattern is expected to take the deepest
moisture southward with time, resulting in the greatest POP with
the second front being over our southern and southeastern counties
on Sunday into Sunday night.
This front will stall over the Deep South on Monday, and high
pressure passing to our north behind the front will send cooler
and drier air into KY. However, the new air mass's progress looks
limited, with its greatest impact being for our northern counties.
In the north, dew points should fall at least into the 50s, with
possibly even some 40s by Tuesday morning. Further south, any dew
point drop below 60 looks like it would be limited. That being the
case, models and their forecast soundings show potential for some
showers/storms to pop up in our southern and southeastern
counties on Monday and Tuesday, mainly during afternoon or early
evening hours. The high pressure system behind the front is
forecast to slip to our east on Wednesday, and low level flow
around it would start to bring moisture back northward. This could
allow isolated to scattered showers/storms to develop further
north over much of the area on Wednesday, but confidence at that
longer time range is not very high.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites. This
afternoon, a weak boundary will drop southeast into the region and
bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to all
terminals. Showers and storms will linger through 00Z/Friday
before dissipating with sunset. Light and variable winds are
forecast through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 12:58 PM EDT---------------
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