JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 7:00 AM EDT702
FXUS63 KJKL 271100
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot weather is forecast for several days, with near record
temperatures today through Friday.
- A modest cool-down is expected for the weekend.
- Our greatest potential for rain is Friday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2024
As of 03Z surface analysis, surface high pressure continues to exist
over much of the eastern CONUS. Locally, mostly clear skies are over
the area. This has allowed temperatures in the eastern valleys to
fall into the low 60s. Also, the GOES Night Fog satellite channel
has begun to show areas of fog developing in the Kentucky,
Cumberland and Big Sandy River basins. Over the next few hours, fog
will continue to develop leading to reduced visibilities in these
valleys. Fog will burn off a little bit after sunrise and a return
to mostly sunny skies is expected.
Upper-level flow continues to remain well north of the area as a 595
dm dome of high pressure is situated over much of the eastern CONUS.
This ridge will keep the area dry today with high temperatures
climbing into the low to mid-90s. Moisture streamlines around the
center of the high is keeping dewpoints on the lower side as Tds are
expected to be in the 60s. The lower Tds will keep higher heat
indices at bay for today. Also, occurring today, an upper-level
shortwave will track through the Central Plains. At the surface, a
low pressure center will track through the Central Plains into the
Midwest, dragging a weak frontal boundary closer to the area. This
boundary will remain west of the area for today. Overnight tonight,
the front will continue to track eastward but mostly clear skies
will allow for river valley fog to develop again which will burn off
early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday brings another day of mostly dry weather and high
temperatures in the low to mid-90s. However, moisture streamlines
have now shifted to be more south-southeasterly which will advect
moisture into the area. This will cause heat indices to climb closer
to 100 degrees for Wednesday afternoon. Also, the surface low will
be tracking through the Ohio Valley with the cold front dropping
into the Commonwealth. This will trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms for the end of the period leading into the long-term
period.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by highs in the low to mid-
90s with increasing heat indices to near heat advisory criteria.
Also, an approaching surface low, moving through the Ohio Valley,
will bring increased chances of showers and storms for the end of
the period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2024
Broad but weakening upper level ridging will be present over the
southeast CONUS at the start of the period. A weak surface cold
front is forecast to approach the Ohio River from the north on
Wednesday night before it stalls. Thunderstorms initiated near the
front may make their way into our northern counties Wednesday
night, but upper level flow and features will be very weak and
coverage would probably be limited. A few more thunderstorms could
pop up on Thursday afternoon or evening in our northern counties
or could initiate over the higher terrain in southeast KY, but
once again a lack of upper level support would likely keep
coverage limited.
The upper level ridge will continue to weaken, and a trough
should drop southeast into the eastern CONUS from Friday into
Monday. This supports another cold front which approaches from
the northwest Friday into Saturday before it also stalls. Exactly
how far it progresses before it stalls is still in question. It
may or may not make it into or through our area. This time
around, flow aloft is expected to begin increasing and low level
flow from the southwest should finally carry in higher dew points.
The combo supports higher POPs well into the chance or low likely
range by Saturday ahead of the front. An impulse moving through
the upper trough should finally send another cold front decisively
through our area Sunday night, bringing an end to any
showers/thunderstorms, with drier and cooler air then arriving
for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites and will
persist through the TAF period. A widespread 4,000 to 5,000 ft
cumulus deck is forecast to develop early Tuesday afternoon and
linger into the late evening before dissipating. MVFR/IFR fog
development in the river valleys is likely again tonight which may
drift into KSME and KLOZ from 09Z through 12Z. Light and variable
winds are expected through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 7:00 AM EDT---------------
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