PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 2:41 PM CDT299
FXUS63 KPAH 241941
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
241 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry weather will continue through the weekend through
much of next week.
- The peak of the heat will occur Tuesday through Thursday,
when heat index values will peak around 100-105F each day.
- Slightly cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms arrive Friday...followed by a more
significant cool down for the start to next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
This afternoon through tonight...A decaying MCS diving south-
southeast across southern MO is bringing some cloud cover to the
Ozark Foothills of southeast MO. Cannot rule out a stray shower
sneaking into far western Carter and Ripley County this
afternoon, but the great majority of this area will stay dry.
Skies will clear regionwide tonight with low temperatures
falling into the middle to upper 60s.
Sunday through Thursday...A stout 594 dm H5 ridge will build
into the region Sunday and Monday and become centered over the
forecast area Tuesday through Thursday. This will bring an
extended late summer heatwave to the Heartland. High
temperatures Sunday and Monday will top out in the lower to
middle 90s. As 850 mb temperatures climb to 20-23C Tuesday
through Thursday, high temperatures will reach the middle to
upper 90s.
Did nudge down high temperatures slight from the NBM
initialization due to a trend towards slightly cooler 850 mb
temperatures during this time as well as signal for some mid and
upper-level cloud cover in time height cross-section forecasts.
Still, it will be very hot. Dew point temperatures will remain
in the lower to middle 60s for much of this period, which will
limit apparent temperature values to the 100 to 105F range.
Cannot rule out needing a Heat Advisory for parts of the region
during this period next week, especially later in the week if
confidence in four consecutive days of these values occurring
rises (meeting Heat Advisory criteria for duration).
Friday and Saturday...Model guidance is in pretty good agreement
considering the extended range that the H5 ridge will begin to
retrograde west of the region on Friday. This will bring a
slight easing in the heat levels and, with the potential for a
few disturbances to traverse the edge of the ridge into the
region, a return of a meager chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The ridge will retreat westward even further on
Saturday, allowing for a return to more typical late summer
temperatures for the beginning on next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024
For the 18z TAFs, the first 3-6 hours will see mid- and upper-
level cloud cover from a decaying convective complex over
Missouri stream across the CGI, MVN, and PAH terminals. These
clouds will diminish to thinning high cirrus overnight. Winds
through the daytime hours will be from the SW-WSW at 6-12 kts
with occasional gusts around 15 kts. Winds will diminish to 5
kts or less overnight from the south.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 2:41 PM CDT---------------
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