PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 4:13 AM EDT651
FXUS61 KPBZ 250813
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
413 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will maintain mostly dry conditions and
well above normal temperatures into the upcoming week. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible at times, mainly later in the
afternoon into the evening.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions, light wind, and limited cloud coverage.
- Temperatures continue to trend up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Expansive high pressure over the eastern CONUS will maintain dry
conditions. A central CONUS ridge transitioning slowly to the
east will maintain northwest flow, and with rising heights and
h850 temperatures progged to near 18C, daytime highs will top
out 5 to 10 degrees above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather continues, though isolated thunderstorms
(Marginal Risk for severe) are possible Monday afternoon and
evening.
- Continued well above normal temperature.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
While probabilities remain low, strong diurnal heating Monday
afternoon in conjunction with increasing surface dewpoints and
weak shortwave movement could lead to isolated shower/thunderstorm
development. Low-end probabilities exist for an isolated
strong-to- severe storm during the afternoon. SPC currently has
the region painted with a Marginal Risk, which `is reasonable
given increased shear, greater instability, and steeper mid-
level lapse rates.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperatures remain well above normal with apparent
temperatures nearing 100F.
- Mainly dry conditions continue, with low-end precip chances
through mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper ridging will shift east next week and begin to flatten as
the ridge axis crosses our region Tuesday into Wednesday. Zonal
flow and perhaps even weak troughing will allow additional low-
probability iso/sct showers Wed afternoon/evening as a weak cold
front passes. For now, have maintained only a slight chance
with PoPs generally 20% or less, but this may need to be
increased as confidence improves.
With the ridge axis progged to be centered more over the
eastern CONUS, area high temperatures will likely be pushing
90F in the PGH metro area by mid-week.NBM MaxT probabilities of
90F+ have increased to around 70-80% for the metro and eastern
Ohio... near 90% for downtown Pittsburgh and the river valleys.
Ensembles indicate amplifying central-CONUS ridging by late
week, renewing northwest flow over the area and cooling
temperatures a bit from previous days.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with light wind that will veer WNW after 16z Sunday is
favored through the TAF period.
Shortwave movement within NW flow aloft Sunday afternoon/evening
may foster a few/sct CU to 10kft altocu with low probability
showers/iso thunderstorms. Hi-res modeling is more bullish on
convection around KPIT and to the NW btwn 18z-22z, but
probabilities never exceed 20% thus will not add TAF mention at
this time.
.Outlook...
Additional shortwave movement with NW flow will foster another
round of low probability (20-30%) showers/thunderstorms
favoring western PA Monday. The most likely windows for
convection are between 10z-16z and 18z-00z Monday, sifting SSE
through that time.
VFR will remain favored through much of the week, with
convection closely tied to weak shortwave movement along the
northern periphery of the central CONUS ridge.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Rackley/88
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 4:13 AM EDT---------------
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