JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 7:09 AM EDT165
FXUS63 KJKL 241109
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
709 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather and gradually increasing temperatures are forecast
through Wednesday. High temperatures may approach daily records
in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
- Our next small potential of rain arrives Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
An area of mid-high clouds is moving over our northeast counties
early this morning and has been added to the forecast in the very
near term. Otherwise, the forecast is on track and no changes were
needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
A strong upper level high centered over the southern plains early
this morning will gradually build northeastward through the short
term period and should be centered over the mid Mississippi Valley
by late Sunday. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered along
the crest of the Appalachians early this morning will drift only
slowly east to near the coast by late Sunday. Our low level flow
will continue to emanate out of the surface high and keep low
level moisture advection to a minimum. Low level temperature
advection will also be near neutral. Rising geopotential heights
and benign, weak flow atop our dry air mass will keep skies mostly
clear. Sunshine each day will work to warm/modify our air mass,
and dew points will also show a slow increase as the air mass
modifies.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
The latest runs of the GFS, ECWMF, GFS Ensembles, and WPC guidance
were all depicting a large ridge of high pressure, both aloft and at
the surface, sprawling across the eastern third of the CONUS to
begin the extended period. This ridge is expected to remain in place
over the region to finish out the weekend and into the middle of the
upcoming work week. The ridging will bring clear skies, light winds,
and abundant sunshine to eastern Kentucky through Thursday. These
conditions will support both ridge valley temperatures differences
of several degrees each night, and late night and early morning
patchy valley fog across the area. The air mass in place will be
quite warm through out the week, with daily highs in the upper 80s
to the low and even mid 90s on tap. We may finally see some low rain
chances across the area on Wednesday, as a weak disturbance passes
by to our north. A few showers and storms may move through the area
late Wednesday into early Wednesday evening before ending. Weak
ridging will then bring more dry weather to eastern Kentucky
Wednesday night through late Thursday morning, before a couple of
northern stream systems move through the region Thursday afternoon
through early Thursday evening, and again Friday afternoon through
very early Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible during that time. The only weather hazards
to speak of will be any cloud to ground lightning that might occur
with any thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions is present in most of its
usual locations. It will dissipate this morning, and then develop
again late tonight. The will likely affect KLOZ and KSME again
toward dawn on Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds
are expected through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 7:09 AM EDT---------------
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