ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 7:42 PM EDT798
FXUS61 KILN 222342
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
742 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic
Coast will continue to provide dry weather through the
weekend. A warming trend will allow the return of above normal
temperatures by Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1026mb surface high pressure forming under a confluent mid
level flow will provide dry weather and mainly clear skies
tonight. Under calm conditions, low temperatures will fall to
the low and mid 50s in urban locations, with upper 40s in rural
areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the center of surface high pressure continues to move
southeast, dry weather is forecast to persist over the Ohio
Valley. Warm advection and insolation will help boost
temperatures to near normal, with highs reaching the 80s,
followed by lows in the mid and upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are generally similar in their upcoming synoptic pattern
depiction for the weekend and into next week. A mid level ridge
(anomalous high in strength for the time of year) will slowly build
north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend.
The high will then have its greatest extent and influence Monday and
Tuesday. This pattern will result in increasing temperatures each
day along with some increase in dewpoints/humidity. Will keep a dry
forecast going into this weekend, although some weak mid level
disturbances moving southeast through the building ridge axis will
bring more clouds, and perhaps a low chance of a shower/storm. The
next chance thereafter may not come until the Tuesday/Wednesday or
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe as a weak front tries to make in roads
into the region while the mid level ridge begins to become
suppressed. Upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday/Sunday will warm into
the lower to perhaps mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will
then just slightly drop back into the upper 80s to the lower 90s
Wednesday/Thursday. Lows will mostly be in the 60s. Heat index
values will reach maximum readings on Tuesday (combination of
dewpoints and temperatures), peaking into the mid 90s to near
100.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure and very dry air in the low levels will
cause VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites through the
period. Only exception to this could be intermittent river
valley fog at LUK during the pre-dawn hours.
Winds should be rather light under the high on Friday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 7:42 PM EDT---------------
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