LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:22 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...098
FXUS63 KLMK 230522
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
122 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Fair weather continues into the weekend. Above normal
temperatures return this weekend and persist into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
Quiet weather over the Ohio Valley this evening. Temperatures topped
out in the upper 70s and low 80s today, and have already fallen into
the low-mid 70s at this hour. With scattered high clouds
streaming over the region and calm-light winds overnight,
temperatures will continue to fall through the overnight hours.
Low temperatures in the morning are expected to be in the low-
mid 50s over the Bluegrass and upper 50s elsewhere. The current
forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
High pressure and a dry airmass have led to a beautiful, sunny day
with low humidity. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to near
80 degrees. A 10 mph easterly breezy will diminish this evening,
with mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Upper level
ridging will continue to slowly build over the region from the west
through tomorrow. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will shift east to
the Mid-Atlantic region.
Lows Friday morning will be in the low to mid 50s, except for
southern KY where upper 50s/near 60 looks more likely. Temperatures
continue to moderate tomorrow, with afternoon highs returning to
near normal for late August. Highs in the mid 80s are likely, with
the warmest urban locations pushing into the upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
Temperatures will continue warming into the weekend as a strong
upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains begins to
amplify and wobble eastward. Systems/Waves riding along the northern
and eastern periphery of the ridge will likely stay NW of the region
during the weekend timeframe, resulting in warm/dry conditions.
Dewpoints will still be in a somewhat reasonable level (low to mid
60s) per mid to late August standards to make the heat a little more
tolerable.
The upper ridge will begin to flatten out as a strong, deep trough
digs into the western CONUS and pushes into the Plains.
Unfortunately, the core of the ridge axis will continue its eastward
wobble as the trough advances, resulting in the ridge being nearly
on top of the region by midweek. This will lead to high temperatures
climbing into the low/mid 90s, and unfavorable conditions for
shower/storm development as warmer mid-level temperatures 'cap' the
atmosphere. Our best chance for any sort of meaningful rainfall would
come from waves/systems riding along the outer periphery of ridge
core that could overcome the capping inversion, though most models
generally keep those systems out of our region. As such, the 7-day
forecast features a high (~90%) probability of dry conditions in
this pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. For
the overnight period, look for light and variable winds with just a
few high clouds streaming overhead. After sunrise, look for winds
to veer to the southwest with a diurnal Cu field popping up.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SRM
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:22 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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