CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:54 PM EDT174
FXUS61 KCLE 231754
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east away from the local area and
settle over the East Coast tonight through Monday. Weak low
pressure will cross the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday,
sweeping a cold front across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mild temperatures continue through tonight as a surface high
begins to drift east of the local area. Overnight lows will fall
into the 50s, although locations along the immediate lakeshore
may be a few degrees warmer in the lower 60s.
A noticeable warming trend will begin to unfold Saturday as
southerly flow develops on the back side of the departing
surface high and heights rise in response to an upper ridge
building east from the Plains. Temperatures will rise into the
low to mid 80s in NW PA/NE OH with mid to upper 80s anticipated
along and west of the I-77 corridor. A few CAMs are hinting at a
weak shortwave approaching from the west late tonight into the
daytime hours Saturday, but forecast soundings indicate
substantial dry air in the lower levels so maintained a dry
forecast for the time being. Humidity should be relatively low
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, but it may begin to
feel a bit muggy by the end of the period as dew points in
western zones creep into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast will be characterized by warming
temperatures as the upper ridge over the Plains expands northeast
into the Central Great Lakes. To the east of the ridge, a trough
will deepen across New England, leading to an increasingly amplified
pattern. The NAM and to a lesser extent the Canadian models shows
moisture returning ahead of a shortwave trough crossing Lake Erie
Saturday night but this increase in moisture and dewpoints seems
artificially high so will keep the Saturday night forecast dry. By
Sunday afternoon could see potential for isolated thunderstorms to
develop, mainly across north central or northeast Ohio. This area is
highlighted where modest instability looks to align with weak
convergence before the ridge really strengthens overhead early in
the week. Did introduce a low 20 pop in for Sunday afternoon and
evening. Otherwise by Sunday temperatures will range from the low
80s to near 90 degrees, with continued warming by another degree or
two for Monday. Humidity will start to increase by Sunday with
dewpoints creeping back up into the 60s.
Models are in fair agreement with theta-e advection increasing from
west to east on Monday night. Chances of precipitation remain low
without a forcing mechanism but are not non-zero so will continue
with a 20 percent chance of precipitation for select aras.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long range models have trended stronger with the upper level ridge
across Northwest Ohio by Tuesday and have raised forecast highs by a
degree or two. Portions of NW Ohio could see heat index values reach
the mid 90s on Tuesday. Weak low pressure is forecast to track out
of the Plains towards the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. The stronger
ridge should provide a sufficient capping inversion for most of the
area to remain dry but could see an isolated thunderstorm in the far
eastern portion of the area by Tuesday night as the trailing cold
front reaches NE Ohio/NW PA. High pressure will strengthen north of
Lake Erie Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures dropping by 3-6
degrees across the northeast portion of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. As stated in the
previous discussion, any overnight/early morning fog should be
limited to deep valleys or be ground fog which would not impact
flight conditions. Generally expect light and variable winds
through the majority of the period, but a lake breeze will
result in onshore winds 5 to 10 knots for a few hours this
afternoon/early this evening. The development of warm air
advection on the back side of departing high pressure will
result in southwest winds late Saturday morning, but expect wind
speed to remain below 10 knots.
Outlook...VFR is expected through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Good marine conditions will continue on Lake Erie into next week as
high pressure slowly builds from the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-
Atlantic Region. Lake breezes are likely each afternoon through the
weekend with winds becoming more southerly by Monday. Speeds will
tend to peak around 10 knots with waves around 1 foot. Weak low
pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday with high
pressure strengthening across the Great Lakes Region for the second
half of the week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...KEC
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 1:54 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
