IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 9:49 PM EDT418
FXUS63 KIWX 200149
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
949 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a High swim risk for southeast Lake Michigan beaches
through tonight, with a Moderate swim risk on Tuesday.
- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures through Thursday.
- Gradual warming trend beginning Friday and into the weekend,
with dry conditions persisting.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
A gradual diminishment in low clouds is expected through late
evening, but main item for evening update is extent of any
increased low clouds across extreme NE Indiana/NW Ohio
overnight. Satellite imagery does indicate an area of greater
low cloud cover across the thumb of lower Michigan. Northeast
flow associated with low level ridge axis to the west, should
tend to advect some better low level moisture west/southwestward
into the overnight hours. These low clouds may spread back into
northwest Ohio and far northeastern Indiana overnight. Have made
just a slight upward adjustment to skycover and mins across the
far east where potential is greater for these low clouds to
affect, but otherwise no significant changes made to the
previous forecast at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
High pressure is building in across the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes, producing a northerly breeze of 10-20 mph, with gusts up to
25 mph near Lake Michigan. Consequently, dangerous waves and rip
currents will continue to produce a high swim risk through at least
the overnight hours. While winds/waves diminish tomorrow, we will
maintain a rip-current threat so a moderate swim risk will remain in
effect.
Besides the marine issues, weather over the next several days will
be beautiful with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and no
precipitation chances. However, morning temps on Wednesday look to
be even cooler with mid to upper 40s. Nice.
A gradual warming trend will begin to take place come Friday as
ridging slides eastward. Near-normal high temperatures on Friday
will be surpassed by Saturday and Sunday with mid/upper 80s. Some
locations might flirt with low 90s by Sunday. There are some
disagreements with models by Sunday and especially Monday,
particularly Monday. Our pattern and subsequent weather at that
point is likely to be governed by the speed, depth, and
placement of a cut off low moving into the N Plains and eroding
the ridge from the west. TBD on the details into early next
week, but low PoPs will cover things for now.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Strong low level inversion induced by low level cold air
advection over past 24 hours has resulted in only a flat cu
field in association with a weak upper level short wave tracking
across the southern Great Lakes this evening. This cu field
should diminish with loss of steep low level lapse rates this
evening, and a low coverage VFR cu field is possible again
Tuesday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds to around 20 knots to
begin this period will rapidly drop off between 00-01Z to light
north-northeast. Diurnal mixing should promote north winds on
Tuesday to around 10 knots.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 9:49 PM EDT---------------
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