ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 10:17 AM EDT588
FXUS61 KILN 211417
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1017 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide for dry conditions through the rest
of the week. Temperatures will moderate through the end of the
week with summer like readings returning by this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Much of the area still has calm conditions, however, anticipate
a light northerly breeze this afternoon as we mix a bit. Not
anticipating gusts to be quite as strong as yesterday, but we're
already seeing some 10-15 MPH gusts through west central Ohio.
Looking at satellite imagery, there is already some cu
developing off of the lakes where moisture is greater.
Previous discussion->
Surface high pressure currently centered over the western Great
Lakes will build slowly east- southeast toward our area through
today. In continued north to northeast low level flow and very
weak CAA, suppose some scattered diurnal cu will be possible
this afternoon. Temperatures will remain well below normal with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The surface high will will slide slowly east across the
southern Great Lakes and toward the upper Ohio Valley tonight
into Thursday. In northwest to northerly flow aloft, some high
level clouds may drift down across the area at times, but
generally expect mostly clear/mostly sunny skies. Tonight will
be another cool night with overnight lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit by
Thursday with afternoon highs in the 75 to 80 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A dry forecast with a gradual warming trend will continue.
Temperatures will start with Friday morning lows in the lower 50s,
rising a solid 8-10 degrees for Saturday morning to range a few
degrees on either side of 60. The remaining overnight lows through
the rest of the forecast will be in the mid to upper 60s, warmest on
Monday night/Tuesday morning. As for daytime highs, Friday starts
out in the low to mid 80s, mid-upper 80s on Saturday, near 90 Sunday
and 90-95 degrees Monday and Tuesday.
The forecast mass fields have not shown any swings over these past
several days, leading to a higher confidence forecast which should
be typical for long periods of dry weather.
The ejecting upper low in the northeast will allow the blocking high
in the mid section of the country to increase in amplitude. Sunday
night will see a s/w moving east through Canada knock the top of
this ridge eastward. The remaining blocking high will retain its
strength and only meander slightly northeast during this time frame,
from north central TX to southwest MO.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the
region today into Thursday. Some scattered cu will be possible
again this afternoon. Skies will be mostly clear tonight and
with light winds, some river valley fog will be possible once
again. This could lead to some MVFR to possible IFR vsby
restrictions at KLUK late tonight into early Thursday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CA/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 10:17 AM EDT---------------
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