IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 12:11 PM EDT436
FXUS63 KIWX 191611
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a high swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches in
Berrien County, Michigan and La Porte County, Indiana through
late tonight. A beach hazards statement is in effect. Life
threatening currents and waves are expected. Those visiting
the beaches should plan to stay out of the water.
- Dry conditions are expected through next weekend. High
temperatures will be in the 70s and low 80s through much of
the week, then climb into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s
this weekend. Lows will be predominantly in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph today (with gusts up to around 25
mph near Lake Michigan) today will gradually diminish tonight.
Conditions are favorable for life-threatening currents, with waves
of around 3 to 6 feet approaching the shore at a 50-80 degree angle
relative to shore, and 6 to 8 second wave periods. Piers will be
heavily swamped from the waves, so if heading to the beach today
plan to stay out of the water and off the pier. A beach hazards
statement remains in effect for high swim risk conditions through
late tonight. For Tuesday, waves approach from the north and subside
to 1 to 3 feet, but wave periods stay in the 6 to 7 second range
through much of the afternoon. Have a moderate swim risk to account
for lingering/prolonged current activity despite lower wave heights.
Quiet forecast for the week as high pressure builds in at the
surface, and the mid level trough responsible for this weekends
shower and thunderstorm activity shifts slightly eastward. Past
Model runs from earlier this week had the trough moving out more
quickly, however the more recent runs have the trough absorb
Hurricane Ernesto today and thus deepen and linger in place over the
NE CONUS (including the Lower Great Lakes) through Friday morning.
Meanwhile, a broad 500mb ridge extending from high pressure centered
over the Desert Southwest into the northern plains through the week
will gradually expand eastward as the trough moves out, eventually
encompassing the Great Lakes region starting Friday into Monday.
For now, have a completely dry forecast through next weekend. The
GFS is weaker than the ECMWF with the incoming ridge and keeps our
CWA closer to the NE periphery on the weekend, thus susceptible to
any shortwaves that move through (GFS has one extending from a
closed low over James Bay Saturday afternoon/eve). However, the
ECMWF has the ridge expanding well into Ontario at this point, which
would keep any precipitation chances from shortwaves in Canada.
Sunday night into Monday night both the ECMWF/GFS we have a trough
swing through-though the GFS is much stronger with it (completely
breaking down the ridge) and the ECMWF less so, but both have
chances for precipitation in that time frame (more with the GFS as
the forcing and moisture are deeper). Left the consensus 14-18
percent chances in there for the Sunday night time period
accordingly.
Expect highs in the low to mid 70s early this week to climb into the
mid to upper 80s by next weekend as 850mb temps rise towards 20C
once again with the incoming ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
As a large area of high pressure sinks south from Ontario over
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, conditions will remain dry
for the next several days. VFR ceilings around 5000 ft persist
through the afternoon, with clouds clearing out after sunset.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon and evening out of the
north, with gusts up to 20kts. Winds subside to 5 kts or less
between 00-03Z tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 12:11 PM EDT---------------
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