IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 3:08 AM EDT637
FXUS63 KIND 210708
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
308 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with well-below normal temperatures and lower humidity
- Temperatures will return to normal and then above late this
week and weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Quiet weather will continue for the short term as central Indiana
remains on the back side of an upper level trough with a
persistent high over the southern Plains. The upper level NW flow
is keeping the below normal temperatures while high pressure at
the surface will bring mostly sunny skies. Only high cirrus clouds
and some afternoon cumulus clouds are expected through tonight.
The main forecast challenge in this pattern is how both daytime
mixing and nighttime radiational cooling will impact their
respective times of the day. For this morning, the lows were kept
below guidance which temperatures have been largely as expected
this morning. For this afternoon, expecting about the same
concerns as yesterday with how much dry air mixes down, so have
dropped dew points some from guidance as well. Otherwise guidance
looks good for another pleasant day with highs in the mid 70s and
lows near 50.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
The long term will start off cool and dry with surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes, a potent upper low over northeastern New
England and a high amplitude ridge from Hudson Bay to the southern
Plains. Even as the surface high moves off to the East Coast by
Friday, the upper ridge will shift east and provide broad subsidence
which should keep it mostly dry through the weekend barring an
isolated storm or two due to warm advection from southerly inflow on
the back side of the high. The main change in the weather, will be a
change from below normal temperatures late week to well above normal
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s by Sunday along with
increased humidity. As we move into next week, there is uncertainty
on when thunderstorm chances will return. The bulk of the models
including the Euro and ensembles, keep a stronger ridge over the
area and deflect an upper wave northeast into Canada. This was not
the case with the damper ridge and wetter solution. With this in
mind, will keep the long term dry with well above normal
temperatures mostly in the lower 90s early next week or some 5 to
10 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Cloud cover
will remain limited to occasional high cirrus and diurnal cumulus
Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be calm to light through the night
and increase to 5 to 10 kts during the day. Low probability of
ground fog this morning near LAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...KF
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 21, 3:08 AM EDT---------------
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