JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 2:38 PM EDT470
FXUS63 KJKL 201838
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
238 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected through Thursday.
- Dry weather will persist into the first part of next week.
- Above normal temperatures return by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
Strong NW flow is going to be the name of the game over the next
couple of days, coupled with surface high pressure. Today's
temperatures have barely topped out above the 70 degree mark as of
2pm. A very similar set up and forecast is on tap for tomorrow as
well. Diurnally driven CU have set up across much of the state,
becoming broken across eastern KY. These clouds should quickly
dissipate at dusk as we lose daytime mixing/heating. Given the
continued NW flow and high pressure at the surface, it is no
surprise that overnight temperatures will also be quite cool. Both
tonight and Wednesday night will see temperatures drop down into the
low 50s, with some of the deeper valleys going into the mid and
upper 40s. This will be some 15 to 20 degrees BELOW normal for the
second half of August. Even afternoon temps are between 10 and 15
degrees below normal.
With the cooler temperatures and calming winds, we will likely see
fog set up again in the deeper valleys overnight. Didn't change the
forecast too much from what was already in place for overnight, with
patchy to areas of fog expected in the valleys. With each day of
drying, expect the fog to become a little more limited each night.
Therefore, only kept patchy fog in for Wednesday night, but will
continue to monitor in case this needs to be updated. The same is
true for the diurnally driven clouds. While BKN CU is currently in
place, expect another round of fair weather CU tomorrow, but went
more FEW to SCT instead of BKN at this point.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
The period begins with an upper-level circulation starting to eject
northeast out of the area. However, lingering north to northwesterly
flow will continue to advect below average temperatures into the
forecast area overnight Thursday. Low temperatures Thursday, are
forecast to be the start of a warming trend; however, temperatures
are still expected to be in the upper-40s in the more sheltered
valleys but climbing into the upper-50s with increasing elevation.
As an upper-level ridge builds across the southern U.S.; the
expected height rises will help push the aforementioned upper-level
circulation out of the area. Beginning Friday, temperatures will
begin to warm back to more seasonal normals as highs will climb into
the mid-80s on Friday to low-90s by Sunday and persist through the
remainder of the period. Overnight lows are also expected to
increase as well with overnight lows topping out in the upper-50s to
low-60s by Saturday night and persist through the remainder of the
period. Fortunately, the air mass, that's building in from the
south, is a drier airmass; therefore, heat indices will be fairly
comparable to forecast highs. Valley fog is expected each night but
will burn off by mid-morning and the area will return to full
sunshine and dry weather.
A possible pattern shift is expected for the end of the long-term
period as deterministic GFS and ECMWF hint at a possible upper-level
shortwave moving out of the northern Rockies into the upper Great
Lakes. This upper-level feature will promote surface cyclogenesis
and frontogenesis. However, there's differences in the placement,
timing and strength of the system; therefore, confidence is lacking
but wanted to mention the possibility of rain on the horizon.
Nonetheless, a quiet forecast period is expected as high pressure
remains dominate. Temperatures will start slightly below average but
will climb back to seasonal normals by the weekend. Rain chances
could possibly increase toward the end of the period with the
possible approach of a shortwave move through the Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
Fair weather CU has developed across much of the region, becoming
BKN in most locations as we reach peak heating. Went ahead and
increased cloud cover in the aviation grids, and also included a
BKN 4k deck for the next few hours based on the latest trends.
Expect that these clouds will quickly dissipate as we head into
the evening hours and lose best heating/mixing. Northerly winds
will peak in the 5 to 8 kt range this afternoon, with a few gusts
between 15 and 20 kts possible at KLOZ and KSME. These too will
diminish by dusk. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow
for more IFR or lower river valley fog, but will forego any
mention at the terminals for now. Heading into the day Wednesday,
expect a very similar pattern as today, with fog lifting in the
morning, and another round of fair weather diurnally driven CU
developing for the afternoon. Not fully confident in the extent of
the CU, expect that it will be a bit less than today, so just
went with FEW for now. Either way, it should be VFR conditions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JMW
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 2:38 PM EDT---------------
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