PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 2:23 AM EDT465
FXUS61 KPBZ 190623
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
223 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will favor the I-80 corridor and mountains
today, diminishing this evening. This will begin a long period
of dry and seasonably cool weather before a warm up next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Residual showers continue today, favoring the I-80 corridor
and mountains.
- Cooler temperatures are likely.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Isolated light showers continue early this morning in northwest
flow as the trough shifts east, favoring the I-80 corridor with
lake enhancement. Lingering cloud cover and moist conditions
will keep low temperatures in the lower 60s across much of the
area.
Diurnally-driven showers are through today, favoring the I-80
corridor (lake enhancement) and mountains (upsloping) through
the morning hours, then likely lingering longest this afternoon
across the mountains. Stray showers are possible elsewhere, but
probabilities remain low, and it is likely many outside of
these two regions remain dry through the day.
Some clearing is possible over eastern Ohio this afternoon, but
most of us will remain at least partly cloudy through the day.
With weak insolation and cold advection in northwest flow, area
temperatures will remain in the 60s for much of western PA and
northern WV. Probabilities for reaching the lower 70s are higher
across eastern Ohio, which will benefit for greater insolation
this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures continue through
mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Any lingering showers will diminish this evening as the trough
axis shifts well east of the area and dry/cold advection
strengthens in northwest flow. Overnight temperatures will fall
back into the 50s, with lows dropping to values not seen since
early June.
Strong height falls and cold air advection will provide cool
conditions again Tuesday, with area temperatures running around
10 degrees below the average. Colder air will likely lead to Cu
development Tuesday afternoon, but dry and quiet conditions are
expected otherwise.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Long range ensembles support dry weather with seasonably cool-to-
near-normal temperature through the week.
- Probabilities for above-normal temperatures increase next
weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range ensembles indicate that upper low pressure will
slowly meander across the Northeast through much of the week
while fairly amplified ridging continues over the Rockies. This
puts us squarely under northwest flow through midweek, favoring
dry conditions. Temperatures should slowly climb through the
week with building surface high pressure and eventual return
flow by late week. Temperatures look to rebound back above
average by late next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will remain for
Monday with northerly flow over the area through dawn and into
the day on Monday. This constant flow of moisture over the area
from Lake Erie will keep stratus over the area for much of the
early morning hours and into the day. Expect light northwest to
north winds at 10 to 20 knots through the day. Expect VLIFR to
IFR cigs through dawn and then IFR to MVFR through much of the
coming day. Some ports such as FKL and DUJ will remain IFR and
below through the period.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions return by Tuesday under high pressure will
continue through next weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 2:23 AM EDT---------------
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