IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 1:49 AM EDT264
FXUS63 KIWX 180549
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-There are chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this
weekend. Severe weather is not expected. Highs will be in the
mid 70s and low 80s. Lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s.
-Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan
through Monday, with a moderate swim risk today becoming a
high swim risk Sunday into Monday night. A beach hazards
statement is in effect for Sunday into Monday night. High wave
action and life threatening currents are expected.
-Dry next week with partly to mostly clear skies. Highs will be
in low to mid 70s through Wednesday, then climb into the upper
70s and low to mid 80s for Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
Arc of forcing wrapping swd through srn flank of fairly deep
upper low over wrn lower MI combined with daytime heating
supporting an west-east band of showers and few lightning
strikes. Expect this activity to continue press swd this aftn
before rapidly diminishing with sunset. Secondary area over ne
WI should survive the trip s/sewd into nw IN late tonight.
Upper low will open tomorrow as it shifts into se ON by aftn.
Ern third to half of cwa will still be within favorable
influence of upper cold pool and with heating another round of
showers and perhaps embedded thunder possible.
Beyond that back to dry, quiet seasonable wx through the work
week. However strong concensus signals indicating srn plains
centered upper ridge will greatly amplify and expand newd into
the wrn OH valley as sfc ridging shifts into the mid Atlantic.
This looks to bring about a substantial warmup next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Spokes of energy will continue to wrap around the upper low
situated over northern Lake Huron. Widely scattered showers may
impact KSBN over the next couple of hours, but somewhat greater
potential exists once again during peak heating as the final
disturbance passes through bringing at least isolated to maybe
sct showers (isol storm) to both sites. MVFR cigs will advect in
from the north overnight into early Sunday before mixing out
once again (only to be replaced by an expanding CU field.
Removed any mention of IFR cigs for the time being as confidence
not high enough at this point.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM CDT this morning through
late Monday night for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
late Monday night for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 1:49 AM EDT---------------
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