LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 6:43 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...881
FXUS63 KLMK 201043
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday. Above normal temperatures return next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
On the synoptic scale, meridional flow aloft continues across the
CONUS this morning with troughs located along both coasts and a
ridge axis across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure across
Canada will continue to build through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valleys. Early morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across much of the LMK CWA. The exception is across our far east and
south areas where some pesky low stratus continues to move
southward. In the near term, no significant weather is expected
through sunrise. We may see some river valley fog develop over the
next few hours. Temperatures were currently in the lower to middle
60s across the region and overnight temperatures are expected to
drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
For today, with high pressure remaining in control of our weather
pattern, mostly sunny skies are expected along with dry and less
humid conditions. We'll see northeasterly winds through the daytime
hours with winds becoming a little breezy in the afternoon with
gusts of 15-20 mph. Highs today will be some 10 degree below normal
for late Augusts. Readings are expected to top out in the mid-upper
70s over the Bluegrass region with upper 70s to near 80 mainly west
of the I-65 corridor.
For tonight, winds will slacken off during the evening with mostly
clear skies expected. We may have some thin high clouds to deal
with and that could hamper radiational cooling across our western
CWA. Lows tonight in the east will drop into the upper 40s to
around 50, with 50-55 degree readings found out west of the I-65
corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
Amplified ridging pattern over the central US will slowly shift
eastward during the second half of the week and into the weekend as
an upper lows drops southward along the British Columbia coast into
the Pacific Northwest by Friday. This will increase heights over the
region resulting in temperatures warming from the mid/upper 70s on
Wednesday to the upper 80s and even 90s Friday and into the weekend.
Below normal lows are expected at the start of the period. Our
coolest morning will likely be Thursday with low temperatures in the
low 50s with a few isolated 40s in protected areas. It will remain
cool Friday morning with lows in the mid/upper 50s and a few 60s
before we return to the mid/upper 60s for the weekend into early
next week.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley
at the start of the long term but will shift eastward and off the
east coast of the US by the start of the weekend. Winds will shift
more southerly on Friday and remain as we go into the weekend.
Confidence is high for our prolonged period of dry weather through
the end of the week and into the weekend. Even with a wind shift on
the west side of the sfc high for Friday into the weekend, moisture
return remains limited into the weekend slowly increase by early
next week. While the overall trend remains much warmer and dry
through the extended forecast, models are starting to trend towards
shower/storm chances Monday night into Tuesday. Will continue to
keep things dry as confidence is not real high but a weak sfc
boundary could push into the region Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
VFR conditions are expected overnight. Skies have continued to
clear and most locations should be mostly clear in the next few
hours. A light northeast wind will prevail overnight. With the
light winds, the PBL may remain turbulent enough to prevent fog
formation, with the exception of the deeper river valleys. VFR
conditions are expected during the daylight hours. We'll probably
see a diurnal Cu field develop around FL050-060. Some breezy
conditions are likely during the afternoon with winds slackening off
toward sunset.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BTN
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 6:43 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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