JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 10:27 PM EDT718
FXUS63 KJKL 190227
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1027 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected today through Wednesday
behind a cold front passage today.
- Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible today and
Monday, especially in the afternoon and early evening, with a
drying trend for Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
Very few showers remain, with the only recent thunder being very
isolated in the vicinity of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Have updated
with these trends in mind, expecting to be able to go with a POP
below 20% shortly. Some redevelopment remains possible over
extreme eastern KY toward dawn.
UPDATE Issued at 857 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
Most precip has died out. However, a slowly dissipating line of
showers and thunderstorms in Madison and Estill counties still
exists and is dropping southward. Have added a higher POP in the
path of these showers/storms for a couple of hours as they die
out.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
This afternoon the upper level low and surface low pressure
continues to push across the Great Lakes this afternoon. The upper
level and mid-level trough continues to swing across the Ohio
Valley. This coupled with west and northwest flow and weak but
sufficient low level lapse rates have lead to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms (coverage in the 60 percent range). Overall
no big changes made in the grids for the afternoon. The coverage
of showers and storms will decrease through the evening and
overnight. Given this opted to lean toward the short term blends
for tonight in terms of PoPs. There is decent agreement in the
HREF and other guidance on there being some stratus that develops
later tonight and therefore increase clouds toward dawn Monday.
Given the increasing clouds expect more uniform overnight lows in
the lower 60s tonight.
Monday, we will continue to see influence from the exiting mid-
level trough axis as it swings eastward. There is also good signal
for a lingering surface trough that seems to keep showers and
isolated storm activity mainly in the far eastern portions of
Kentucky mainly in the afternoon. There is also notably drier
airmass building southward under the increasing northerly flow.
This as afternoon highs climb into the upper 70s to around 80
degrees. Monday night, the ensemble and deterministic guidance is
in good agreement on an area of high pressure continuing to build
eastward toward the Ohio Valley mainly providing continued
northerly flow and drier air at the surface. However, this will
also lead to clearing skies through the evening and will set the
stage for patchy to areas of fog through the night especially in
the valleys. This northerly flow and high pressure will help to
drive overnight lows into the lowers 50s in most locations, with
HREF showing around a 60 to 90 percent chance of overnight lows
below 55 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
A very quiet extended period. In fact, other than some deep valley
fog, there won't be any weather concerns at all!
We've been impacted by a prolonged troughing pattern across much of
the eastern Conus. This pattern isn't expected to change much
through Wednesday, as the upper level low continues to strengthen
and dig the trough. By Wednesday night, however, the system will
start to quickly shift northward, allowing the strong upper level
ridge that's been in place across the south-central Conus to begin
working in. Rising heights are then expected across the Commonwealth
into next weekend.
Despite the troughing pattern in place to start the period, all the
moisture/precip associated with this system should have exited east
of the Commonwealth during the short-term portion of the forecast.
In it's wake, high pressure will take hold, accompanied by strong NW
flow. This flow will result in below normal temperatures and low
humidity. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday should only top out in the
upper 70s. Also can't rule out some overnight lows dropping into the
40s as well, mainly in the deeper valleys.
For the second half of the week, dry conditions should persist as
the upper level ridge starts to build in. However, the increasing
subsidence and sunshine, along with the return of light southerly
flow, will moderate temperatures warmer. Highs by Saturday and
Sunday will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Thankfully the humidity
levels shouldn't increase too much, so the heat indices won't be
much different than the actual temperature.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
Conditions were VFR early this evening, with the exception of some
sub-VFR conditions in some lingering very isolated
showers/thunderstorms. Once these die out, VFR conditions are
expected everywhere for a time. However, a combination of low
clouds and fog is forecast to develop overnight and last into
Monday morning, resulting in a period of IFR or worse conditions
for almost the whole forecast area. Improvement back to mostly VFR
should occur early Monday afternoon. Won't rule out a few showers
on Monday afternoon, but the probability at any given time/place
is low and it's not currently included in TAFs.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 10:27 PM EDT---------------
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