IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 1:39 AM EDT530
FXUS63 KIWX 170539
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cluster of showers and storms will move into
northwest/portions of north central Indiana through midnight
with a potential of a few wind gusts of 40+ mph. Showers and
storms should weaken during the overnight hours.
- Mainly afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm showers
Saturday through Sunday.
- Dry and pleasant next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
A fairly strong upper level short wave tracking across northeast
Illinois has been responsible for forcing a convective cluster
across northeast Illinois which will track into northwest
Indiana over the next hour. These storms have been most vigorous
along a narrow MLCAPE axis of 1500 J/kg from central Illinois
into northwest Indiana where some modest low level dew point
pooling has occurred along low level baroclinic zone. Strongly
forced nature of this setup and narrow instability axis should
allow convection to be sustained into western portions of the
area through 03Z. KLOT and terminal radars along with surface
obs indicate at least a potential of some 40+ mph wind gusts as
these linear segments affects northwest Indiana over next few
hours. Trend after 03 or 04Z should be a diminishing one as
showers and a few storms persist into Interstate 69 corridor
with some increasing low level CIN developing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024
Drying aloft within subsident regime behind departing shortwave will
squelch storms chances this aftn. That effect will wane toward
sunset ahead of weaker upstream wave progressing through WI attm.
This should yield as least isold showers/storms mainly through srn
MI but contend cams smear swd into the US 30 corridor possible and
will maintain low-mid range chance pops tiered south-north this
evening.
Upper low over the lakes wraps up tomorrow over cntrl lower MI and
should support some diurnal heating induced showers mainly sw half
within wrn flank of better upper support collocated with better low
level theta-e ridging w-sw of lake shadowing. This activity will
fade with sunset yet likely renew again Sun aftn with heating as
upper low opens and release ewd into se Canada. However pops are
grossly overdone and will amend as such.
Thereafter ridging sfc and aloft build through the lakes and OH
valley with a return of fair, dry and seasonable wx through next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024
The disturbance responsible for the broken line of showers and
occasionally some thunderstorms, was advancing quickly east with
KSBN in the clear and KFWA not far behind. Area of storms did
dissipate prior to arriving to KFWA although one cell has
developed south of the airport moving east. While a few showers
may develop for another hour or 2 at KFWA, have opted to start
with a dry forecast. Pocket of MVFR cigs situated across central
WI will drop SE, reaching KSBN towards 12Z before mixing out
during the morning. Clouds appear likely to mix out prior to
arriving to KFWA.
Thereafter, potential for some showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder become uncertain with some left over instability during
peak heating. Have introduced a VCSH at KSBN for several hours
late AM into the afternoon, but left KFWA alone.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Fisher
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 1:39 AM EDT---------------
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