LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 7:00 AM EDT852
FXUS63 KLMK 191100
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday. Above normal temperatures return next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Current radar is showing isolated light showers moving through the
Bluegrass this morning as the last bits of moisture wrap around the
exiting cold front. Little to no impacts expected, but went ahead
and updated grids to account for QPF and PoPs. Updated products as
well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
On the synoptic scale, a high index pattern continues across the
CONUS with troughs along the coasts and a mid-level ridge across the
western Plains. In the Ohio Valley, skies were mainly clear west of
the I-65 corridor. East of the I-65 corridor, a cool/moist
northeast flow was advecting low-level stratus into the region from
the northeast. We expect this northeast flow to continue and bring
a period of mostly cloudy skies to the region this morning. Early
morning temperatures were in the mid-upper 60s. Through sunrise, no
significant weather is expected and overnight lows will likely be in
the 63-68 degree range.
For today, low-level northeast flow will bring mostly cloudy skies
to the region this morning. However, with diurnal heating and good
mixing, these clouds look to scour out by late morning, leaving the
afternoon to be partly to mostly sunny. With the good mixing, we
should see the PBL become a bit more turbulent and breezy conditions
are likely to develop across the area. Highs today will range from
the upper 70s in the Bluegrass to the very low 80s along and west of
I-65.
For tonight, upper level trough axis will continue to move slowly
eastward and away from the Ohio Valley. We'll be under a deep north-
northwesterly flow aloft with high pressure building into the region
from the northwest. Mostly clear skies are expected and low
temperatures will drop into the lower-mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Blocking pattern featuring a strong ridge centered over the Desert
Southwest and a deepening trough associated with an upper low over
the Mid-Atlantic and New England will persist through at least
Thursday. This will provide north-northwesterly winds aloft with
north-northeasterly winds near the surface. Drier cooler air will
continue to advect in as sfc high pressure builds in from the north
across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley by the middle of the
week. Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be below normal for
this time of year, nearly 10 degree below. Highs will be in the
upper 70s Tues/Wed with a gradual warm up on Thursday with highs
getting back into the low/mid 80s. Lows will also be cool for Mid
August with morning lows in the low 50s and then mid/upper 50s by
Friday morning.
By the end of the week and into the weekend, sfc high pressure will
shift eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast of the US as the upper
ridge starts to work and expand eastward. As it does, temperatures
will start to warm to near or even above normal with highs returning
to the upper 80s and low 90s by the weekend.
Confidence is high that we will remain dry through this period and
potentially beyond. PWAT anomalies will be negative through most of
the week before returning close to seasonal norms. Even with the
increased heights and heat, dew points will remain in the low/mid
60s into the weekend.
With an extended period of dry weather in the forecast, expanding
drought conditions would need to be monitored. As vegetation dries
out this week, with an increase in heat for the weekend into next
week, temperatures could potentially be hotter than what guidance is
expecting at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Low stratus has built in over most of the TAF sites this morning.
The few exceptions are HNB and BWG where CIG will be right on the
edge of the low stratus shield. Expect these MVFR conditions to
continue through the morning to just around midday before the
stratus begins to break. With clearing, we could get some gusty
northerly winds later this afternoon if we can mix out things
quickly. Scattered clouds will be around then clear with the loss of
daytime heating. Winds will also diminish and expect generally light
northerly winds and clear skies for the overnight hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CG
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 7:00 AM EDT---------------
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