LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 12:48 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...921
FXUS63 KLMK 190448
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1248 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected
through Thursday. Above normal temperatures return next
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
The last of the showers are now dissipating with sunset. The
remainder of the overnight hours will remain dry. Low stratus will
begin to fill into the region in the early morning hours. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 60s. The current
forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
An upper low continues to spin slowly eastward over the eastern
Great Lakes this afternoon, with troughing extending south over the
Appalachians. Lobes of mid-level vorticity are rotating southeast
over the Ohio Valley within the parent trough. Scattered to numerous
showers, and a few isolated storms, have developed diurnally with
steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cyclonic flow aloft.
Mid-level lapse rates are quite poor, and instability is weak. Thus,
have only seen a handful of lightning strikes so far. A few
additional storms will be possible through early evening, but severe
weather is not expected. A briefly heavier shower or sub-severe wind
gusts will be possible, but these impacts will be localized.
Temperatures are topping out in the upper 70s to mid 80s in most
places this afternoon, though any scattered showers will quickly
knock those temperatures down locally. The weak convective activity
will diminish with sunset, allowing clouds to mostly scatter out
this evening. Then, low-level moisture streaming in from the north
will bring a period of mostly cloudy skies early Monday.
Temperatures will bottom out in the low to mid 60s. Expect a mostly
cloudy start to Monday before skies become partly sunny in the
afternoon. Overall, a mainly dry and pretty nice day with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
An extended period of quiet and comfortable weather is expected
across the region this week, with temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
feeling more like late September than mid August. A highly amplified
mid- and upper-level flow pattern will be in place across North
America, with a deep upper trough axis oriented along the lee of the
Appalachians during the mid-week period. While upper-level ridging
will build over the desert southwest, medium-range guidance suggests
that this ridge will struggle to make much eastward progression
until late this week into next weekend. In the low-to-mid levels,
northerly and then northeasterly flow will help to establish cold
advection across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday, as sfc high
pressure gradually slides east across the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario. This will assist in advecting a dry continental air mass
into the region, with anomalously low PW values consistently being
shown in ensemble guidance through much of this week.
Cold air advection should be offset somewhat by ample sunshine, so
would still expect temperatures to reach into the upper 70s and
lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday
morning, temperatures should be able to cool rather efficiently
given the dry air mass in place (dewpoints should be in the upper
40s and lower 50s). While the sfc high remaining to the north may
keep a light northeasterly breeze going during the night, any spots
which can decouple should easily be able to fall into the upper 40s,
and some mid 40s would be possible in typical cool spots. As we head
into the late week period, increasing heights and the onset of weak
return flow should cause temperatures to rise back toward normal
values. Humidity should remain low as moisture return struggles to
make much northward progress. As a result, precipitation chances are
unlikely through next weekend. By next weekend, the upper ridge will
overspread the region from the west, allowing temperatures to return
to above climatological normals. Given the extended period of dry
weather beforehand, a resurgence in drought coverage/magnitude will
be probable, which could exacerbate warm temperatures for the end of
August.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024
Convection has diminished across the region with clear to partly
cloudy skies noted across the region. Winds will continue to
diminish overnight and some low stratus will build down as we get
toward sunrise. Currently thinking most sites will stay in the MVFR
range, but there could a few sits that drop to IFR cigs. We expect
those cigs to lift during the mid-morning with clearing skies and
VFR conditions by afternoon. With the clearing, we'll probably have
good mixing in the afternoon to produce wind gusts of 15-19kts
through about 19/23Z. The outlook for Monday night and Tuesday
calls for VFR conditions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......SRM
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....CSG
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 19, 12:48 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
