LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 11:09 AM EDT420
FXUS63 KLMK 181509
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1109 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and storms today. No severe weather expected.
* Dry weather is forecast for most of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Upper low continues to slowly spin eastward over southern Ontario,
with upper level shortwave energy rotating southeast over the Ohio
Valley within the parent trough. SCT-BKN stratocumulus has blossomed
since sunrise as low level moisture lifts into clouds. These clouds
will continue to gradually lift into the afternoon, but expect skies
to remain partly to mostly cloudy for much of the day.
Have lowered PoPs a touch over the next few hours. Showers have been
slow to develop thus far and will be diurnally-driven. Still
expecting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon,
when cyclonic flow aloft combines with sufficient moisture and low-
level warming.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
A subtle upper level disturbance over the Midwest this morning will
slide southeastward between an upper trough over the Great Lakes/
Appalachians and upper ridging over the Plains/Front Range. This
feature will move into the Ohio Valley this afternoon as convective
temperatures in the lower 80s are reached and precipitable water
values increase slightly into the 1.5-1.7" range. Instability will
be fairly weak, but sufficient for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to bubble up during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Very weak shear, narrow positive area on sounding progs, and
chaotic hodographs suggest poorly organized non-severe single cell
thunderstorms. The main threat (other than lightning) should be sub-
severe wind gusts near the heaviest downpours.
High temperatures today will be tricky given clouds, showers, and
northwest breezes behind last night's cold front. Will go for highs
mostly in the lower 80s, though that may be optimistic.
Convection this afternoon and early evening will dissipate with the
setting of the sun, leading to a mostly dry overnight under partly
cloudy skies. With a light north breeze ahead of high pressure
centered over Manitoba and Ontario, temperatures will fall into the
lower and middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
The work week will begin with the axis of an upper trough centered
over Appalachia as a huge upper ridge begins working into the Lower
Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Midwest
will direct cold air advection over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Not only will the northerly winds bring cooler air but
also drier air to the CWA. There is a small chance for early
lingering rain showers towards eastern Kentucky Monday, but the
latest data looks pretty dry. Don't believe there will be any
rainfall in the CWA, only some early morning cloud cover. High
temperatures will be held to the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday, and
with the continued northerly surface flow, Tuesday and Wednesday
appear a couple of degrees cooler than Monday.
By the end of the work week, the upper ridge won't move much as it
will be blocked by the embedded low in the upper trough parked over
New England. The upper ridge will have pushed the surface high to
near the southern Great Lakes by Wednesday evening, and as this high
works past the CWA, northerly surface winds will veer towards the
east, killing cold air advection. Temperatures will begin warming to
the low to mid 80s on Thursday before the upper 80s return on
Friday. Then, as the high makes it closer to the coast, light warm
air advection will help the low 90s return for the weekend. Skies
will remain mostly sunny all week after the early cloud cover on
Monday. Dew points for most of the week will remain in the 50s to
low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024
Sub-VFR clouds are present from central Indiana to central Ohio,
some of which are IFR. At this time it appears that some of those
clouds will push south into southern Indiana and central Kentucky
during the first half of the morning, but model guidance suggests
ceilings will prevail MVFR.
This afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop, dissipating
as the sun sets this evening. Severe storms are not expected, and
conditions outside thunderstorms will be VFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...13
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 11:09 AM EDT---------------
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